WASHINGTON, D.C. — Gallup’s latest poll shows a slight improvement in Americans’ economic confidence in June, though it remains in negative territory. The Economic Confidence Index rose from -22 in April and -18 in May to -14 this month. This marks a consistent range of -14 to -22 since November, following President Donald Trump’s election win.
Despite this uptick, the current index score contrasts sharply with the positive readings during the first three years of Trump’s initial term. Economic conditions, including unemployment and inflation rates, were stable during the June 2-19 poll, while the stock market improved from April’s volatility caused by Trump’s tariffs. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged but hinted at potential cuts later this year if inflation rises as expected.
Gallup’s index combines evaluations of current economic conditions and future outlook. The modest improvement stems from better assessments of current conditions, with no significant change in the economic outlook. A plurality of 41% of Americans rate the economy as “only fair,” while 31% see it as “poor” and 27% as “excellent” or “good.” The percentage viewing the economy as poor dropped six points since May, the lowest since August 2021.
However, economic confidence remains negative due to a bleak outlook, with 36% saying the economy is improving and 59% believing it is worsening. Republicans remain confident (+52), while Democrats (-65) and independents (-22) view the economy negatively. Trump’s approval rating in June, prior to military action in Iran, was 40%, the lowest of his second term.
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U.S. Economic Confidence Slightly Improved, Still Negative
WASHINGTON, D.C. — Americans’ assessments of the U.S. economy improved slightly in June but remain negative, as Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index increased from -22 in April and -18 in May to -14 this month. The index has been consistently in the -14 to -22 range since November, after President Donald Trump won the election. It stood at -26 in October.
Although the latest index score is an improvement from the lower levels recorded over much of the past three years, it stands in stark contrast to the positive economic confidence readings during the first three years of Trump’s first presidential term.
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Economic conditions in the U.S., including unemployment and inflation rates, were generally stable during the June 2-19 poll, while the stock market remained improved from the April volatility that resulted from the Trump tariffs. The Federal Reserve met at the end of the poll’s field period and kept interest rates unchanged but signaled that it might cut them later this year if, as it expects, Trump’s tariffs cause inflation to rise. The poll was completed before Trump ordered military air strikes on nuclear facilities in Iran on June 21.
Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index summarizes Americans’ evaluations of current economic conditions (as excellent, good, only fair or poor) and their outlook for the economy (whether they believe it is getting better or getting worse).
The index has a theoretical range of +100 (if all Americans rate current conditions as excellent or good and say the economy is getting better) to -100 (if all Americans rate the economy as poor and say it is getting worse). In Gallup’s trend of these measures since 1992, the highest ECI score is +56, in January 2000, and the lowest is -72, in October 2008.
Current Economic Conditions Viewed Less Poorly, but Outlook Is Flat
The modest improvement in economic confidence is a result of better assessments of current economic conditions, while there has been no change in Americans’ outlook for the economy.
The plurality of Americans, 41%, rate current economic conditions as “only fair,” while 31% think they are “poor” and 27% “excellent” or “good.” The share of U.S. adults who say the economy is poor has fallen six percentage points since May to the lowest level since August 2021. This has been accompanied by slight upticks in those rating it as excellent/good or only fair.
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Although ratings of current conditions are nearly equally positive and negative, economic confidence remains in negative territory primarily because of the public’s continued poor economic outlook. A steady 36% of Americans say the economy is getting better, and 59% think it is worsening. These readings have not changed meaningfully since January.
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Republicans’ Economic Confidence Remains in Positive Territory
As is usually the case, economic confidence varies greatly between those who identify with the incumbent president’s party and those who identify with the opposition. The ECI continues to be positive among Republicans (+52), as it has been since Trump took office. In contrast, Democrats (-65) and independents (-22) rate the economy negatively.
Republicans’ confidence about the economy is at its highest point since October 2020, before Trump’s defeat in that year’s election, while Democrats’ and independents’ has improved slightly since May, but both readings are solidly negative.
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Before Iran Strikes, Trump’s Approval Rating at Lowest Point of Second Term
Trump’s job approval rating in June, before he ordered U.S. forces to strike Iran, was 40%, which is the lowest of his second presidential term. His rating going forward may be affected by his decision to pursue military action in Iran.
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Republicans remain broadly supportive of Trump (89%), while 36% of independents and just 1% of Democrats express approval. Before this month, Republicans’ approval of Trump ranged from 90% to 93%, Democrats’ was 4% to 6%, and independents’ was 33% to 46%.
At this point in his first term, Trump had a 38% approval rating nationally, including 84% among Republicans, 33% among independents and 7% among Democrats.
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