An analysis by Luis Fernando Mejía, director of Fedesarrollo — a private organization conducting economic and social research — has sparked public debate by challenging alarmist views regarding the Colombian peso’s strengthening against the U.S. dollar. During an interview on Caracol Radio’s 10AM program, Mejía emphasized that Colombia is not experiencing an economic crisis, but rather a currency fluctuation driven by global factors influencing the local currency’s behavior.
Since the beginning of 2025, the Colombian peso has shown a revaluation trend, prompting various interpretations about its causes and consequences. In response, Fedesarrollo decided to break down the elements shaping this situation to clarify its actual implications for monetary policy.
“The core issue is the uncertainty generated by economic policy decisions from the Trump administration,” Mejía explained, referring to the influence of recent U.S. economic announcements. Among these decisions is the approval of a law extending tax cuts, which reportedly exerts negative pressure on the fiscal balance of the United States.
Additionally, trade wars were identified as a key factor contributing to the weakening of the U.S. dollar, which, according to Mejía, has performed worse than at any point in nearly a quarter-century. These dollar movements, determined by factors beyond Colombian authorities’ control, have led to peso appreciation. While this phenomenon offers immediate benefits to consumers and travelers, concerns have been raised about potential long-term effects. Mejía reiterated that this is not an internal distortion or local imbalance, but rather a response to international dynamics.
Domestically, the decline in the dollar’s value has had noticeable impacts on imported goods consumption. Mejía noted that this development provides relief for Colombian households, particularly those purchasing foreign products or planning international travel.
“It has resulted in a drop in the dollar’s price, benefiting Colombian importers and travelers abroad,” he clarified, highlighting the positive impact on external purchasing power.
However, the economist also issued a caution: this favorable environment is not immune to future changes. Unexpected statements and decisions from the White House could alter market trajectories: “This is, of course, subject to announcements that are difficult to predict from the Trump administration,” emphasizing that the situation could shift abruptly if new U.S. government measures emerge.
Alongside these monetary changes, Colombia’s recent inclusion in the BRICS group — an international political and economic forum of emerging countries — attracted attention. This alliance, comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, aims to establish itself as a counterbalance to traditional global economic powers. Some interpreted Colombia’s inclusion as a strategic diversification effort, while others saw it as a potential distancing from the United States.
Regarding this, Mejía explained that joining the BRICS group should be viewed as a strategy to expand national opportunities. “My recommendation was that the country should continue diversifying its diplomatic and commercial relationships, maintaining closeness with the United States while also opening new channels for commercial and financing opportunities,” he stated.
Although acknowledging that this timing might raise concerns among some international actors, his assessment leaned toward potential economic benefits.