There are two stories you can tell about the U.S. economy right now. n nThe first is that it has proved surprisingly resilient. Despite tariffs, inflation has remained tame. Despite federal job cuts, unemployment has remained low. Despite darkening consumer attitudes, actual spending has continued to rise. n nThe second story is that cracks are beginning to form, and will most likely deepen. Tariffs are starting to drive up prices. Companies are hiring fewer workers and, in many industries, aren’t adding jobs at all. Consumers are pulling back spending on plane tickets and hotel stays. And all of that is before the full effects of President Trump’s policies have worked their way through supply chains and into boardroom strategy sessions. n nA week from now, it should be clearer — at least a little — which story is closer to reality. n nThis week will bring a flood of data that will help clarify the path the economy is on right now: major reports on gross domestic product, consumer spending and prices, and, perhaps most important, the state of the labor market.
