Artificial intelligence is reshaping the U.S. corporate landscape, yet its contribution to national economic output remains partially invisible in official statistics, according to a recent analysis by Goldman Sachs. The firm highlights a significant discrepancy between actual economic activity driven by AI and what is captured in GDP data. n nSince 2022, revenue generated by American firms supplying AI infrastructure has surged by $400 billion, suggesting a strong influence on economic expansion. However, the analysts estimate that only about $45 billion of this growth—equivalent to 0.2% of GDP—has been formally recorded, despite AI contributing an estimated $160 billion, or 0.7% of GDP, to real economic activity. This leaves approximately $115 billion in AI-driven gains unaccounted for. n nThe underrepresentation stems from how the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) calculates GDP. High-performance semiconductors, essential for AI model training, are classified as intermediate goods rather than final products. As such, their value is not counted as investment until they are embedded in consumer devices like laptops. When imported, their cost is subtracted from GDP, further distorting the measurement. n nGoldman Sachs argues that these advanced chips are now instrumental in creating intangible assets—such as trained AI models—whose long-term economic value isn’t fully reflected in current accounting frameworks. The analysts note that roughly $75 billion spent on cloud-based AI development and enterprise applications has not appeared in investment metrics. n nAdditional distortions emerged in early 2025, when businesses accelerated imports of servers and networking equipment ahead of anticipated tariffs under President Donald Trump’s trade policy. This surge inflated short-term investment figures in information-processing hardware, but much of it represented pre-emptive purchasing rather than sustained demand. Since imports reduce GDP, the apparent investment spike was partially negated. n nBeyond GDP, AI’s financial impact remains elusive in corporate earnings. Although a record number of S&P 500 companies referenced AI during second-quarter earnings calls, few have quantified its effect on profitability, according to a separate Goldman Sachs report. n— news from Business Insider
— News Original —
AI’s economic boost isn’t showing up in GDP, and Goldman says that’s a $115 billion blind spot
Artificial intelligence is transforming corporate America, yet the boom remains understated in government growth statistics, according to Goldman Sachs. n nAnalysts at Goldman pointed to the scale of the boom in a Saturday note: “Revenue at US companies providing AI infrastructure has risen by $400bn since 2022, which at first glance seems to suggest that AI has been a meaningful driver of economic growth recently.” n nBut official numbers tell a different story. n nAI technology has lifted real US economic activity by about $160 billion since 2022, or 0.7% of GDP, the analysts calculated. Yet only around $45 billion, or 0.2% of GDP, of AI-spurred growth has been recorded in official statistics. That leaves roughly $115 billion uncounted, according to the analysts. n nThat gap highlights the difference between what companies report and what the government measures due to the Commerce Department ‘s Bureau of Economic Analysis method for calculating growth. n n”The measured impact of AI on GDP is likely much smaller because the BEA ‘s methodology for estimating GDP treats semiconductors as intermediate inputs, which are only counted towards final demand when the products (e.g., consumer laptops) that they enable are sold,” wrote the Goldman analysts. n nSo, high-performance semiconductors — the chips powering AI training — are classified as intermediate inputs. When they ‘re imported, the value is deducted from GDP, and their use in building AI systems doesn ‘t appear as investment. n nHowever, the chips developed in recent years are being used for training and supporting AI models — essentially “building an intangible asset of which the ultimate output value has not been fully capitalized or measured in GDP,” the analysts wrote. n nRelated stories n nBusiness Insider tells the innovative stories you want to know n nBusiness Insider tells the innovative stories you want to know n nGoldman ‘s analysts estimated that around $75 billion spent on developing AI models and enterprise solutions in the cloud has not been counted in investment statistics. n nNew import policies complicated the picture further. n nIn the first half of 2025, business investment in information-processing equipment appeared to jump, largely because companies rushed to import servers and networking gear ahead of President Donald Trump ‘s import tariffs. n nThe trend “probably reflects one-time frontloading ahead of tariffs and thus exaggerates normal AI investment demand,” the analysts wrote. Because imports are subtracted from GDP, the investment boost was partly offset. n nAI ‘s impact is hard to pin down in other important indicators. Companies, too, are struggling to show it in their bottom lines. n nWhile a record share of S&P 500 firms mentioned AI on earnings calls in the second quarter of the year, “the share of companies quantifying the impact of AI on earnings today remains limited,” according to a separate report from Goldman Sachs earlier this month.