In August 2025, the U.S. Leading Economic Index® (LEI), compiled by The Conference Board, decreased by 0.5% to reach 98.4 (2016=100), following a minor 0.1% gain in July—revised upward from an initially reported 0.1% drop. Over the six-month period from February to August 2025, the LEI declined by 2.8%, a sharper contraction compared to the 0.9% fall recorded in the prior half-year. This marks the largest monthly drop since April 2025, suggesting increasing headwinds for the economy. n nJustyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager of Business Cycle Indicators at The Conference Board, noted that only stock prices and the Leading Credit Index provided positive contributions in August. The yield spread, a historically reliable recession predictor, turned slightly negative for the first time since April, weakening the overall outlook. Persistent softness in manufacturing new orders and consumer sentiment, along with rising jobless claims and reduced manufacturing work hours, further weighed on the index. n nHigher tariffs are cited as a significant factor dampening economic momentum. These trade measures have already reduced growth in the first half of 2025 and are expected to continue restraining GDP expansion through the remainder of the year and into early 2026. While The Conference Board does not currently forecast a recession, it projects U.S. GDP growth of just 1.6% for 2025—down from 2.8% in 2024. n nThe Coincident Economic Index® (CEI), which reflects current economic activity, rose 0.2% in August to 115.0 (2016=100), following 0.1% gains in both June and July. The index increased by 0.6% from February to August, slower than the 0.9% rise in the previous six months. Its components—payroll employment, personal income excluding transfers, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—collectively indicate modest ongoing expansion. Payroll employment contributed neutrally in August. n nThe Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) edged up 0.1% to 120.0 in August after no change in June and July. It grew 0.7% over the February–August period, more than double the 0.3% increase seen earlier. n nThe LEI, composed of ten forward-looking indicators such as building permits, initial jobless claims, and consumer expectations, is designed to anticipate business cycle turning points by about seven months. The CEI, closely aligned with real GDP, confirms current conditions. The next update is scheduled for October 20, 2025. n
— News Original —nThe Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US Declines in AugustnNEW YORK, Sept. 18, 2025 /PRNewswire/ — The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US declined by 0.5% in August 2025 to 98.4 (2016=100), after a small 0.1% increase in July (upwardly revised from an originally reported 0.1% decline). The LEI fell by 2.8% over the six months between February and August 2025, a faster rate of decline than its 0.9% contraction over the previous six-month period (August 2024 to February 2025). n n”In August, the US LEI registered its largest monthly decline since April 2025, signaling more headwinds ahead,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Among its components, only stock prices and the Leading Credit Index supported the LEI in August and over the past six months. Meanwhile, the contribution of the yield spread turned slightly negative for the first time since April. n n”Besides persistently weak manufacturing new orders and consumer expectation indicators, labor market developments also weighed on the Index with an increase in unemployment claims and a decline in average weekly hours in manufacturing. Overall, the LEI suggests that economic activity will continue to slow. A major driver of this slowdown has been higher tariffs, which already trimmed growth in H1 2025 and will continue to be a drag on GDP growth in the second half of this year and in H1 2026. The Conference Board, while not forecasting recession currently, expects GDP to grow by only 1.6% in 2025, a substantial slowdown from 2.8% in 2024.” n nThe Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the US rose by 0.2% in August 2025 to 115.0 (2016=100), following an increase of 0.1% in both June and July. Overall, the CEI rose by 0.6% between February and August 2025, down from 0.9% over the previous six months. The CEI ‘s four component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. All components of the coincident index improved only slightly in August, with payroll employment making a neutral contribution to the CEI. n nThe Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the US inched up by 0.1% to 120.0 (2016=100) in August 2025, after being unchanged in both June and July 2025. The LAG grew by 0.7% in the six months between February and August 2025, over twice as high as the 0.3% increase over the previous six months. n nThe next release is scheduled for Monday, October 20, 2025, at 10 A.M. ET. n nAbout The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the US n nThe composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. n nThe CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or “leads”—turning points in the business cycle by around seven months. n nThe ten components of the Leading Economic Index® for the US are: n nAverage weekly hours in manufacturing n nAverage weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance n nManufacturers ‘ new orders for consumer goods and materials n nISM® Index of New Orders n nManufacturers ‘ new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders n nBuilding permits for new private housing units n nS&P 500® Index of Stock Prices n nLeading Credit Index™ n nInterest rate spread (10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds rate) n nAverage consumer expectations for business conditions n nThe four components of the Coincident Economic Index® for the US are: n nPayroll employment n nPersonal income less transfer payments n nManufacturing and trade sales n nIndustrial production n nTo access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/ n nAbout The Conference Board n nThe Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What ‘s Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org n nSOURCE The Conference Board
