The monthly employment report scheduled for release on Friday has been postponed due to the ongoing federal government shutdown. This delay leaves businesses, analysts, and government officials without critical data on labor market conditions during a period of noticeable economic deceleration. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, responsible for compiling such data, has suspended operations along with numerous other federal agencies affected by the funding lapse. n nIf the shutdown persists beyond a few days, the upcoming inflation report—set for publication around mid-October—may also face postponement. This data is essential not only for monetary policy decisions but also for determining the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) that Social Security beneficiaries will receive in the following year. The COLA is calculated using inflation metrics from July through September, meaning any disruption in reporting could complicate timely and accurate calculations. n nHistorically, similar shutdowns have caused significant delays in economic data dissemination. During the 2013 work stoppage, key reports were withheld for over two weeks, limiting policymakers’ ability to respond effectively to economic shifts. At present, recent indicators point to weakening labor demand: job growth slowed markedly in recent months, and June saw a net loss in employment—the first since 2020. The national unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, the highest level in nearly four years. The September jobs report would have offered clarity on whether this softening trend extended into the fall. n nThe Federal Reserve, having recently lowered interest rates in September for the first time this year amid labor market concerns, is scheduled to meet again in four weeks. Upcoming decisions on borrowing costs will depend heavily on fresh labor and price data, both of which are now at risk of delay. Meanwhile, consumer price figures show inflation ticking upward, with an annual rise of 2.9% in August compared to 2.7% the prior month—partially influenced by previous tariff policies. Without timely federal statistics, alternative data sources may be relied upon, though none match the breadth and reliability of official surveys covering tens of thousands of households and enterprises nationwide. n— news from NPR n
— News Original — nGovernment shutdown could delay key economic reports at an especially sensitive time nA key report on the job market will not be published on Friday, as scheduled, as a result of the government shutdown. That means businesses and policymakers will be left guessing about the strength of the labor market at a time when the U.S. economy appears to be slowing. n nIf the shutdown drags on for more than a few days, a report on inflation scheduled for mid-October could also be delayed. That report is part of the formula used to calculate the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) that Social Security recipients receive next year. n nThe number-crunching bureau at the Labor Department is one of many government agencies idled by the shutdown. A similar work stoppage in 2013 delayed key economic reports for more than two weeks. n nThe shutdown comes at a sensitive time for the economy. Hiring slowed sharply in recent months, and government tallies showed that employers actually cut jobs in June for the first time since 2020. The unemployment rate inched up to 4.3% in August — its highest reading in almost four years. The September jobs report would ordinarily help shed light on whether those trends continued into early fall. n nConcerns about weakness in the job market prompted the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September for the first time all year. The Fed faces another rate-setting decision in four weeks, and policymakers would like to have up-to-date information on hiring and unemployment. n nConsumer prices data could also be delayed n nInflation has also heated up slightly in recent months, partly as a result of President Trump’s tariffs. Consumer prices in August were up 2.9% from a year ago, compared with a 2.7% annual increase the previous month. Inflation figures for September are supposed to be released on Oct. 15. The cost-of-living readings for July, August and September are used to calculate the annual Social Security COLA. n nWhile there are alternative measures of economic activity, none can match the reach of the federal government, which surveys tens of thousands of households and businesses every month.