Due to the ongoing federal government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has suspended the release of its monthly employment report, a critical source of economic insight. With only the acting commissioner remaining on duty out of more than 2,000 staff, all data collection and publication activities have been paused.\n\nAccording to the Department of Labor’s contingency plan, the BLS will not issue scheduled economic updates, conduct active surveys, or maintain its website during the shutdown. If the closure persists, future data accuracy could be compromised due to gaps in current data gathering.\n\nRecent private-sector figures from ADP indicate a weakening labor market. The firm reported a net loss of 32,000 jobs in September, a sharp reversal from earlier expectations of job growth between 45,000 and 51,000. August’s numbers were also revised downward, showing a loss of 3,000 positions instead of the previously reported gain of 54,000. This marks the largest payroll decline since March 2023.\n\nSmaller employers—those with fewer than 500 workers—experienced job losses, while larger firms added positions. Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist, noted that despite second-quarter growth, hiring sentiment remains cautious.\n\nHowever, financial analysts at Morgan Stanley caution against treating ADP data as a full substitute for federal statistics, citing methodological limitations and reduced transparency. Experts emphasize that private datasets lack the breadth, rigor, and public accessibility of government-collected information, and often come with high subscription costs.\n\nJust before the shutdown began, the BLS released its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, which showed minimal net job change in August. The construction sector was hit hardest, shedding 115,000 jobs—largely attributed to tariffs on imported materials.\n\nInflation continues to climb. The August Consumer Price Index indicated a 0.4 percent year-over-year increase for urban consumers, the highest since January. Without timely federal updates, households and businesses may struggle to respond effectively to rising prices.\n\nWhite House spokesperson Kush Desai blamed Democrats for the impasse, stating that their stance on immigration funding was disrupting economic transparency.\n— news from Talking Points Memo\n\n— News Original —\nThe Government Shutdown Is Helping Trump Obscure Federal Economic Data\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics has been forced to halt the publishing of its always-anticipated monthly jobs report because of the government shutdown, making room for President Donald Trump’s administration to obscure the true state of the economy nine months into his second term. n nWhile the president has made clear his plans to use the government shutdown as a way to target Democrats and fire more federal government workers to “inflict massive pain,” the situation at the BLS creates a unique opportunity for an administration averse to accurate data. According to the contingency plan published by the Department of Labor, only one of the more than 2,000 BLS employees, the acting commissioner, will be working during the shutdown. n nHere’s how the Labor Department has outlined BLS shutdown functions: n n“BLS will suspend all operations.” n n“Economic data that are scheduled to be released during the lapse will not be released.” n n“All active data collection activities for BLS surveys will cease.” n n“The BLS website will not be updated with new content or restored in the event of a technical n nfailure during a lapse.” n nAnd if the shutdown carries on? n n“The releases of economic data will likely be delayed if a lapse is prolonged.” n nFurther, “A reduction in quality of data collected might impact the quality of future estimates produced.” n nRight now, all signs point to a weakening economy, one exacerbating the divide between the top 10% and everyone else, and having a particularly harmful effect on small- and medium-sized businesses, farmers, and the manufacturing industry, according to previous BLS data. Those are the very sectors Trump campaigned to help. n nOn Wednesday, private HR and payroll corporation ADP released its own nongovernmental employment numbers, complete with significant downward revisions for the previous months. n nCompanies lost a combined 32,000 jobs in September, the ADP data showed. Analysts had estimated the economy would actually add between 45,000 and 51,000 jobs in Sept. including government jobs, which the ADP report omits. The ADP survey also included a downward revision for August, showing U.S. businesses actually lost 3,000 jobs that month, rather than adding 54,000 jobs as previously believed. n nSeptember data saw the largest payroll reduction since March 2023, Bloomberg reported. n nAnd the impacts aren’t equitable. Employers with fewer than 500 employees lost jobs, the ADP numbers show, while companies 500 or more employees added them. n n“Despite the strong economic growth we saw in the second quarter, this month’s release further validates what we’ve been seeing in the labor market, that US employers have been cautious with hiring,” Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, said. n nWhile the ADP jobs tally is noteworthy, especially amid the data blackout prompted by the shutdown, the data still falls below the gold standard numbers produced by the federal statistical system, Morgan Stanley’s economists said in a report. n n“We are reluctant to rely on the ADP data,” the economists said, citing less transparent methodology and other discrepancies. n nThat underscores the idea experts have pushed back against in conversations with TPM: that compromised federal economic data cannot be easily reproduced by private industry. Private surveys use less expansive and diverse survey participants, experts said, and are also subject to far fewer public disclosure requirements. Indeed, access to private datasets can cost thousands of dollars. n nIn response to an inquiry about the impact of the shutdown on federal data, White House spokesperson Kush Desai accused Democrats for the government deadlock. n n“Businesses, families, policymakers, and markets rely on timely and accurate public data for their decision-making, and it’s unfortunate that Democrats are gleefully throwing a wrench in our economy by shutting down the government to push freebies for illegal immigrants,” Desai said in an email. n nThe BLS job openings and labor turnover report, released Tuesday just ahead of the start of the shutdown, revealed a stagnant jobs market. In August, employers basically didn’t net any new jobs and also didn’t necessarily cut jobs, either. The construction industry has been particularly hard hit by tariffs on materials-related imports and lost 115,000 jobs in August, the largest loss across industry. n nMeanwhile, inflation continues to rise. The BLS consumer price index for August, published in the middle of last month, showed inflation for urban consumers grew by 0.4% year over year, the most since January. n nThe BLS and other government agencies that track crucial economic data will remain shuttered as long as the shutdown continues. During this time, families and corporations could also be left in the dark about worsening inflation.
