Florida’s economy remains strong despite growing uncertainties, according to Sean Snaith, an economist at the University of Central Florida. In his latest quarterly forecast, Snaith notes that while risks are rising, the state’s economic foundation remains resilient. n n“The outlook isn’t recession-bound,” said Snaith, who leads UCF’s Institute for Economic Forecasting. “Growth is holding steady, supported by durable underlying conditions.” n nWhile Florida continues to outpace national economic trends, several factors—ranging from fiscal policy shifts to environmental risks—could affect future performance. n nHousing Market: Signs of Stabilization Amid Affordability Pressures n nAfter a prolonged period of rapid price increases, the housing sector is showing signs of balance. “Markets are transitioning from overheated to more sustainable conditions,” Snaith observed. Inventory levels are improving, and price growth is moderating. n nHowever, affordability remains a concern. High insurance premiums continue to burden homeowners, and a temporary suspension of the National Flood Insurance Program during a federal shutdown disrupted transactions, leaving some buyers unable to finalize purchases. n nEconomic Outlook Through 2028 n nFlorida’s economy is projected to maintain momentum through 2028, even as national growth slows and federal fiscal debates persist. n nKey projections from Snaith’s four-year forecast, which covers the state and 25 metro areas, include: n nHousing starts declined from 193,700 in 2022 due to rising mortgage and insurance costs, reaching 156,008 in 2025. The number is expected to stabilize before a slight increase to 158,459 by 2028. n nNominal GDP is forecast to surpass $2.06 trillion by 2028, with real GDP reaching $1.45 trillion. n nReal Gross State Product is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.1% between 2025 and 2028. n nJob growth will gradually slow from 1.2% in 2025 to 0.5% in 2028, yet still exceed national averages over the same period. n nThe unemployment rate is expected to rise modestly to 3.8% by 2028, remaining about 0.7 percentage points below the national figure. n nSnaith attributes sustained demand to favorable demographics, including an influx of retirees, job seekers, and domestic migrants. n n“Florida has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to withstand economic turbulence,” he said. “The fundamentals are intact, even if the path ahead includes some turbulence.” n— news from University of Central Florida
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UCF Economist: Florida’s Economic Outlook Still Sunny — But Storm Clouds Loom
Florida’s economy continues to shine despite a mix of policy storms, according to UCF economist Sean Snaith in his latest quarterly statewide forecast. n n“But that uncertainty isn’t enough to push the economy into a recession,” says Snaith, director of UCF’s Institute for Economic Forecasting. “Florida’s growth remains steady and resilient, for now.” n nSnaith’s new forecast finds the Sunshine State still outperforming the nation, though several storm systems, both literal and fiscal, could darken the horizon. n nHousing: Cooling Prices, Rising Inventories n nAfter years of surging prices, Florida’s housing market is finally showing signs of balance. “The housing market is stabilizing,” Snaith says. “Inventories are normalizing, prices are easing, and markets are shifting from red-hot to sustainable.” n nBut affordability pressures persist. High insurance costs continue to weigh on homeowners, and a temporary lapse of the National Flood Insurance Program during the federal government shutdown leaves many Florida buyers unable to close on properties. n nA Solid Economy with Some Risks n nFlorida’s expansion is expected to stay on track through 2028, even as national growth slows and federal spending battles continue. n nAdditional highlights from Snaith’s four-year forecast, covering the state and 25 metro areas, include: n nHousing starts have felt headwinds from higher mortgage and insurance rates. Total starts were 193,700 in 2022, before higher mortgage rates and a slowing economy began a deceleration that will slow starts to 156,008 in 2025. From there, starts will remain relatively steady before drifting higher to 158,459 in 2028. n nFlorida’s nominal GDP will exceed $2.06 trillion in 2028, with real GDP at $1.45 trillion. n nReal Gross State Product will grow at an average annual rate of 2.1% from 2025–2028. n nJob growth will slow from 1.2% in 2025 to 0.5% in 2028, still outpacing the national labor market through 2028. n nThe unemployment rate will rise slowly to 3.8% by 2028, about 0.7 points below the nation. n nDespite gradual cooling, Snaith says Florida’s demographics — retirees, job seekers and steady in-migration — will keep demand strong. n n“Florida’s economy has proven time and again it can weather uncertainty,” he says. “The fundamentals remain sound, even if the forecast includes a few clouds.”