With the federal government shutdown disrupting the release of key economic statistics, analysts are relying on limited but available data from private sources and ongoing Federal Reserve reports. Despite the scarcity of official indicators, the existing information points to continued economic expansion, a sluggish labor market, steady consumer spending, and inflation hovering near 3.0% year-over-year. These signals may prompt caution among Federal Open Market Committee members as they prepare to evaluate potential rate cuts on October 29.
The current data landscape indicates that the U.S. economy is weathering significant stressors, including federal furloughs, administrative disruptions, and ongoing trade policy uncertainties—often referred to as the Trump Tariff Turmoil. While the absence of comprehensive metrics complicates forecasting, the resilience observed so far suggests underlying stability.
Private-sector indicators and Fed-published reports are now critical in filling the information gap. Analysts are carefully interpreting these fragments to assess economic momentum. Though sparse, the evidence collectively supports the view that growth persists, even under pressure. This could influence monetary policy decisions in the coming weeks, particularly regarding whether further easing is warranted.
— news from Yardeni QuickTakes
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DEEP DIVE: Slim Pickin’s Among Economic Indicators
The following is an excerpt from our October 14 Morning Briefing for institutional investors. We are sharing it with our QuickTakes members today. n nIt isn’t easy being an economist when the government shutdown shuts off the flow of economic data. Nevertheless, the Fed is still open for business and issuing economic releases. So are several private-sector sources of economic indicators. n nOn balance, the data we do have suggest that the economy is continuing to grow, the labor market is lackluster, consumers are consuming, and inflation may be stuck around 3.0% y/y. That should give pause to the members of the Federal Open Market Committee when they meet again to decide whether to lower the federal funds rate again on October 29. The available data suggest that the economy remains resilient and continues to pass the latest stress tests, including the government shutdown, federal government layoffs, and the ongoing Trump Tariff Turmoil. n nLet’s glean what we can from the available slim pickings: