A significant week for economic indicators is on the horizon, even though federal agencies are inactive due to a government closure. Private-sector reports will take center stage, offering insights into the current state of the economy. Overall, the data are expected to reflect continued expansion, sustained consumer expenditure, and gradual employment growth. Key highlights include: n n(1) Retail activity. The Redbook Retail Sales Index, released each Tuesday, is anticipated to show steady consumer demand for goods, reinforcing the idea that household spending remains resilient. n n(2) Sector performance. The Institute for Supply Management is scheduled to release its October purchasing managers’ indexes for manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries on Monday and Wednesday, respectively. These figures may indicate stabilization or modest improvement, supported by preliminary readings from S&P Global. Additionally, regional surveys from five Federal Reserve districts suggest the manufacturing index could have reached a neutral 50.0, signaling a potential turnaround after recent contractions. n n(3) Labor market dynamics. The ADP National Employment Report for October is projected to reflect a gain of about 50,000 private-sector jobs, a notable improvement from the prior month’s drop of 32,000 positions. This would suggest some recovery in hiring momentum. n n(4) Job cuts. The Challenger Layoff Report for October, due Thursday, may reveal a rise in announced job reductions, particularly within the tech sector. However, broader workforce disruptions appear limited, as state-level data show initial unemployment claims remain low. Bloomberg projects that new jobless claims for the week ending October 25, 2025, totaled around 218,000, down from the revised 231,000 in the previous week. n— news from Yardeni QuickTakes
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ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: November 3-7
A big week of economic releases is coming up, but the government won’t be reporting them because it is closed for business. Nevertheless, the week ahead will still be a big one for private-sector economic data. On balance, they are likely to show that the economy is expanding, consumers are spending, and employment is still growing, albeit at a slow pace. Consider the following: n n(1) Retail sales. The weekly Redbook Retail Sales Index is released on Tuesday mornings. It is likely to confirm that consumers are continuing to spend on merchandise at a solid pace (chart). n n(2) Purchasing managers. October’s ISM national purchasing managers’ indexes for the manufacturing (Mon) and non-manufacturing (Wed) sectors might show some strength, based on S&P Global’s flash estimates (chart). n nThe regional business surveys conducted by five of the 12 Fed district banks suggest that the M-PMI might have rebounded to 50.0 in October (chart). n n(3) Employment. October’s ADP private payrolls report should show a modest increase of around 50,000 based on ADP’s weekly estimates. That would be a welcome rebound from September’s 32,000 decline. n n(4) Layoffs. October’s Challenger announced job layoffs report (Thu) is likely to show an increase, especially among technology companies. A broader increase is unlikely since state data indicate that weekly initial unemployment claims remain subdued (chart). Bloomberg’s latest estimate of US jobless claims is approximately 218,000 for the week ending October 25, 2025. This marks a decline from the previous week’s revised figure of 231,000.