Wisconsin continues to maintain a stronger economic position than the national average, according to the latest Economic Scorecard from Marquette University’s Center for Applied Economics. The report highlights that both the state and the Milwaukee metropolitan area have unemployment rates significantly below the U.S. benchmark, signaling relative labor market strength despite emerging signs of moderation. n nState income growth is tracking closely with national GDP expansion, while job markets in Wisconsin and Milwaukee have sustained lower unemployment levels compared to the country as a whole. However, economists note a gradual cooling in local employment conditions. Non-farm employment has declined on a year-over-year basis since April 2025, a trend projected to persist into April 2026. Although average hourly wages are expected to increase, the pace of growth is slowing. n nDr. Nicholas A. Jolly, associate professor of economics and co-author of the report, observed that the Milwaukee metro labor market is undergoing a transition after years of robust expansion. He emphasized that while employment figures have dipped, wage growth remains positive, albeit at a reduced rate. n nThe Milwaukee-Waukesha region has seen consistent monthly employment declines since April 2025, regardless of seasonal adjustments. Despite this, wage resilience offers a buffer, with average hourly earnings forecasted to rise from $35.62 in April 2025 to $36.06 by April 2026. Co-author Dr. Grace Wang, director of the Center for Applied Economics, described the current phase as a period of adjustment, noting stable inflation and modest wage gains. She urged focus on long-term strategies such as workforce development and adapting to evolving housing and labor dynamics. n nHousing affordability presents a growing concern. Through September 2025, Wisconsin’s median home price increased by 1.8% compared to the same period the previous year—contrasting with a 0.2% national decline. In Milwaukee, the figure rose even more sharply, by 2.7%, potentially complicating recruitment for employers due to rising living costs. n nSectoral employment shifts reveal mixed trends. Retail lost approximately 1,200 jobs (a 0.4% drop) from January to August 2025, while leisure and hospitality added about 56,600 positions (up 21.1%) and construction gained 21,600 jobs (a 16.5% increase). These patterns reflect broader economic realignments. n nThe May 2025 scorecard’s forecasting accuracy was evaluated against actual outcomes. All five key indicators—non-farm payrolls, manufacturing jobs, retail employment, hourly wages, and home prices—fell within the predicted 95% confidence range. Forecast errors were minimal: non-farm and manufacturing employment predictions deviated by no more than 0.37%. Retail employment forecasts had a maximum error of 1.28%, and wage estimates were off by up to 0.90%. Home price projections showed the largest variance, overestimating April values by 3.38%, though accuracy improved to under 1% by June. n nData for the report came from public sources including the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, and the National Association of Realtors. Forecasts were generated using ARIMA modeling, a method effective for short-term projections. However, external factors such as policy changes, geopolitical developments, or technological disruptions could influence future outcomes. n
— news from Marquette Today
— News Original —
Wisconsin, Milwaukee metro area continue to outperform national economic averages in Marquette Business’ latest Economic Scorecard
Wisconsin is in a good economic position relative to the U.S. as a whole and the unemployment rate in the state and Milwaukee metro region remain well below the national average according to the Economic Scorecard for Southeastern Wisconsin released by the Center for Applied Economics in the College of Business Administration. n nThe complete Economic Scorecard for Southeastern Wisconsin with complete data and visualizations is available online. n nThe scorecard finds total state income in Wisconsin is growing at a similar rate relative to national Gross Domestic Product, and the unemployment rates for Wisconsin and the Milwaukee metro region remain well below the national average. While the Milwaukee metro region has experienced lower unemployment rates relative to the national average, economists are starting to see moderating labor market conditions. n n“The local labor market in the Milwaukee metro region is beginning to cool down,” said Dr. Nicholas A. Jolly, associate professor of economics and a co-author of the scorecard. “When comparing monthly employment numbers from the same month in the previous year, non-farm employment has seen year-over-year declines since April 2025, and this trend is expected to continue through April 2026. Average hourly earnings are projected to rise, but at a slower rate.” n nThe Milwaukee-Waukesha metropolitan area has experienced average monthly year-over-year declines in employment starting in April 2025 when looking at either seasonally or non-seasonally adjusted data. Data expects this trend to continue throughout the early part of 2026. One area of economic resiliency is that average hourly earnings is expected to continue its climb, albeit at a slower rate. n n“The recent slowdown in Milwaukee’s labor market signals a period of adjustment after several years of strong growth,” said co-author Dr. Grace Wang, professor of economics and director of the Center for Applied Economics. “Overall economic conditions remain stable, with wages rising modestly and inflation showing signs of restraint. This environment calls for a focus on long-term resilience by supporting workforce development and helping local employers adapt to changing labor and housing market conditions.” n nAdditional takeaways from the scorecard revolve around house affordability, sectoral shifts in employment and wage growth stabilization: n nThrough September 2025, Wisconsin’s average median home price rose by 1.8% this year when compared to the same months last year. That deviates from the national average, which had a slight 0.2% decline. The Milwaukee metropolitan area saw even stronger growth, with the average median listing price climbing 2.7%, which may create challenges for local employers whose potential employees may not be able to afford to live in the area. n nAcross sectors in Wisconsin, retail employment experienced a loss of roughly 1,200 jobs, down 0.4%, between January and August 2025. In contrast, employment grew 21.1% (about 56,600 jobs) in leisure and hospitality and 16.5% (21,600 jobs) in construction jobs. n nAverage hourly earnings in the Milwaukee metro area are projected to rise modestly from $35.62 in April 2025 to $36.06 by April 2026. The previous scorecard noted the most recent trend points to a slowdown in growth, suggesting a more stable labor market. This moderation in wage growth may be driven by a cooling labor market and easing inflationary pressures. n nReflecting on May 2025 Economic Scorecard projections n nThe Center for Applied Economics released its first bi-annual economic scorecard in May 2025 and all five data points analyzed—non-farm payroll employment, manufacturing employment, retail employment, average hourly earnings, and the median home listing price—fell within the predicted 95% confidence intervals. n nFor total non-farm and manufacturing employment, forecasts were never off by more than 0.37%. n nThe largest error for retail employment was 1.28% in magnitude, and the worst forecast for average hourly earnings was off by 0.90%. n nMedian listing price proved difficult to forecast accurately. The scorecard overestimated the listing price in April by 3.38%, which is the highest percent error from all five data series. However, by June, forecasts were back to a less than 1% error. n nBased upon these accuracy metrics, Jolly and Wang concluded that their initial round of forecasting was quite successful. n nMethodology n nThe current economic conditions presented in this report are based on publicly available data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, and the National Association of Realtors. All reported data points, such as GDP growth rates, unemployment rates, and housing prices for 2024, reflect actual values as published by these agencies. n nThe forecasts for non-farm employment, manufacturing employment, retail employment, average hourly earnings, and median home listing prices are produced using an ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) modeling approach. n nWhile ARIMA models offer robust short-term forecasts, events, such as policy shifts, geopolitical risks, or technological changes, could cause actual future outcomes to diverge from these projections.