David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images n nWith the U.S. government resuming operations following a recent shutdown, focus has shifted to when key economic indicators such as employment and inflation figures will be made public. As of Friday morning, neither the Labor nor Commerce Departments had issued updated release calendars, though revised timelines are anticipated shortly. n nMarket analysts widely expect the September jobs report—data already gathered but not yet processed—to be published next week, although this remains unconfirmed. The delay in releasing official statistics has created uncertainty, particularly within the Federal Reserve, where policymakers rely on timely data to shape monetary decisions. n nBank of America economist Shruti Mishra noted that the lack of current official figures left both financial markets and the central bank navigating without reliable benchmarks, forcing them to rely on alternative data sources. “Now that the shutdown has ended, attention will pivot sharply to the incoming wave of economic data,” she stated. n nThe closure not only interrupted data collection but also introduced complications for future reports. For example, the October nonfarm payrolls report, expected in early December, may exclude the unemployment rate for that month. This is due to the dual-survey structure: one survey collects payroll records from businesses, while the other relies on household interviews. The latter, used to calculate the jobless rate, cannot be easily reconstructed after missed collection periods. n nSimilarly, the October consumer price index (CPI) may never be issued. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) depends on in-person visits to gather pricing data, which cannot be backfilled. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt acknowledged potential data gaps, though Mishra indicated she had not expected the CPI report even prior to this confirmation. n nThe BLS website urges patience, noting that determining revised release dates may take time. The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis, responsible for GDP and the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, stated it is coordinating with the BLS and other agencies and will announce updated schedules as soon as feasible. n nPolitical pressure is mounting. Democratic lawmakers, including Sens. Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Maria Cantwell, and Gary Peters, have challenged the administration’s explanation, arguing that past shutdowns did not prevent data publication. In a letter obtained by CNBC.com, they cited the 2013 shutdown, during which the BLS later released delayed data, suggesting current delays might be intentional. n n”The Trump Administration’s failure to release data or provide a clear release schedule deprives businesses, Congress, and the Fed of essential economic insights,” the letter read. It urged the release of as much data as possible before the December Fed meeting and a swift return to regular reporting. n nLabor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer said accuracy assessments are needed before any data can be published. Speaking on Fox Business, she expressed confidence that a release timeline would be announced soon and emphasized the White House’s push for accurate November data. n nCitigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst remains optimistic that the Fed will receive the September through November jobs reports ahead of its December 9–10 meeting. While Fed officials previously signaled a December rate cut, recent comments from key members suggest growing hesitation. n nBeyond employment and CPI, the BLS produces data on producer prices, import/export prices, job openings, and productivity. The Labor Department also issues weekly jobless claims. The Commerce Department oversees personal income and spending, GDP, and the PCE price index—its primary inflation gauge—with October PCE data slated for November 26. Retail sales, trade balance, and durable goods data are managed by the Census Bureau. Department officials did not respond to requests for comment.
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Here’s where things stand on when the government will start releasing key economic reports
David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images n nAs the U.S. government reopens for business, Wall Street ‘s attention will now turn toward when critical data on employment, inflation and other economic signposts will be released. n nAgencies under the departments of Labor and Commerce had not posted revised schedules as of Friday morning, but updates are expected soon. n nConsensus expectations are that the September jobs report, data for which has already been collected but not processed, will be released next week, though that is not for certain. n nFrom there, though, the uncertainty on releases casts another cloud over what has become an increasingly contentious policymaking atmosphere at the Federal Reserve — not to mention the nervous climate among investors. n n”The absence of timely official numbers left the markets and the Fed operating in a data fog, forced to scour alternate sources to gauge the underlying outlook,” Bank of America economist Shruti Mishra said in a note. “With the shutdown resolved, all eyes will now be on the incoming data dump.” n nThe shutdown not only halted data collection and releases, but it also complicated the picture once the data does start coming out. n nwatch now n nFor instance, the October nonfarm payrolls count, expected in early December, likely won ‘t include the unemployment rate for that month. That ‘s because the report entails two surveys: a more objective look at “hard data” from businesses that uses timecards and payroll numbers to assess how many jobs have been filled, and another entailing telephone calls and written surveys to households asking how many people are working. The latter survey is used to calculate the jobless rate and would be difficult to replicate. n nMoreover, the October consumer price index report also may never be compiled, owing also to the method used to gather data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics uses in-person visits, so the data can ‘t be collected retroactively. n nWhite House press secretary Karoline Leavitt warned Wednesday about missing data, but Mishra said she wasn ‘t expecting the CPI report even before that. n nA statement on the BLS site asks for patience during the data collection process as “it may take time to fully assess the situation and finalize revised release dates.” Similarly, the Commerce Department ‘s Bureau of Economic Analysis, which releases several key data points including the Fed ‘s inflation gauge, said it is working with the BLS and other agencies on data collection and “will publish updated release dates as soon as they are available.” n nPolitical pressure n nIn the meantime, some Democratic lawmakers already are getting impatient and demanding answers from the administration about when the data will be released. n nSens. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Bernie Sanders of Vermont, Maria Cantwell of Washington and Gary Peters of Michigan insisted that “government shutdowns do not inherently inhibit the federal government from collecting or releasing economic data,” according to a letter obtained by CNBC.com n nCiting precedent from the October 2013 shutdown, in which the BLS later published release dates, the administration “may be intentionally restricting the release of data.” n n”The Trump Administration ‘s failure to release data or provide a clear schedule for the release of delayed data leaves businesses and policymakers without access to critical economic information,” the letter states. “It is critical that businesses, consumers, workers, Congress, and the Fed have access to timely and comprehensive economic data. The Administration must release as much economic data as possible before the Fed ‘s meeting and resume normally scheduled data releases as soon as possible.” n nWhite House officials did not respond to a request for comment. n nWaiting for the Fed n nSince Leavitt ‘s statement Wednesday, several officials did say data would be forthcoming but there are still questions on which reports will come out when. Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer said data on payrolls and prices will have to be assessed for accuracy before it can be released. n n”I ‘m not sure when BLS, if and when they will be able to release that, but I ‘m expecting they will tell us a schedule very quickly about when those numbers could come out,” Chavez-DeRemer said Friday on Fox Business. Chavez added that the White House has been “urging for accurate data to come out for November.” n nCitigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst said in a Friday note that he is optimistic the Fed will have the September, October and November jobs reports by the time it holds its next policy meeting on Dec. 9-10. Fed officials in September indicated that a December cut would be likely, but several key officials have said recently that they are suspect of the need for additional easing. n nOutside of the payrolls and CPI report, the BLS also computes data on import and export prices, job openings, producer prices, productivity and other metrics. The Labor Department itself releases the weekly jobless claims numbers. n nBeyond the BLS and Labor Department issues, the Commerce Department also handles several key data points. n nAmong them are personal income and spending, which includes the Fed ‘s main inflation forecasting measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index, and gross domestic product. Data for October PCE is scheduled to be released Nov. 26. The Census Bureau handles retail sales, trade balance and durable good releases. Department officials did not respond to a request for comment.