Economic activity in Oregon has been weakening, with population growth stalling and unemployment climbing at a pace exceeding the national average. According to State Economist Carl Riccadonna, who briefed lawmakers recently, the state may see modest recovery by 2026, supported by anticipated declines in interest rates that typically boost sectors like housing, business investment, and auto sales. He also pointed to tax reductions from legislation signed by former President Donald Trump in July as a potential catalyst for renewed economic momentum.
A forthcoming U.S. Supreme Court decision could further benefit Oregon by potentially eliminating half of Trump-era tariffs. The state is leading a legal challenge against these tariffs, with the Oregon Department of Justice presenting arguments earlier this month. Riccadonna estimated that a favorable ruling would equate to a national tax reduction of $200–$250 billion, translating to roughly $2–$3 billion in savings for Oregon alone.
However, current conditions remain challenging. Oregon’s jobless rate has climbed to 5%, and between August 2024 and August 2025, the state shed 18,000 nonfarm jobs across industries such as manufacturing, construction, and transportation. The losses were concentrated in Multnomah and Washington counties, where major employers like Wells Fargo, Intel, and Providence have downsized their workforces in the Portland metro region.
Economic policy expert John Tapogna emphasized that many of Oregon’s institutions—including education systems, land use regulations, and permitting frameworks—were designed for past challenges and are ill-suited for today’s realities. With deaths now outpacing births, population decline could ease housing demand but may also reduce the number of workers in critical fields like childcare, healthcare, and education.
Tapogna proposed five strategic priorities to revitalize the state’s appeal. First, addressing housing affordability is essential, as the median home price of $513,000 far exceeds the median household income of $89,700. Second, improving educational outcomes is crucial; Oregon ranks in the lower half of states in fourth- and eighth-grade reading and math proficiency, which may deter families from relocating. Third, wildfire risks and poor air quality during fire seasons diminish the attractiveness of living in the region. Fourth, tax policies, particularly in Multnomah County, influence migration decisions by households and businesses. Lastly, shifting public perception to view economic and population growth as beneficial rather than burdensome is vital for long-term prosperity.
Despite these hurdles, Tapogna highlighted Oregon’s enduring strengths: its scenic landscapes, sustainable urban development model, history of innovation, and potential in clean energy. He warned that the next decade will bring transformative changes in demographics, technology, and climate unlike any previous period.
— news from Keizertimes
— News Original —
Officials peer into future as Oregon’s economic activity slows
Oregon’s economic activity is declining, population growth is slowing and unemployment is rising — all at a faster pace than the U.S. n nWhile the state’s economy is slowing down, there’s hope for moderate growth in 2026, State Economist Carl Riccadonna told lawmakers this week. n nAn economic upturn in 2026 is possible as interest rates are on the decline, which usually spurs home buying, business investment and vehicle sales, he said. Tax cuts for businesses from a new law President Donald Trump signed in July will also likely stimulate more economic movement, he said. n nA pending U.S. Supreme Court ruling could cut Trump’s tariffs in half, which would be good news for Oregon, Riccadonna said. Oregon is leading the lawsuit challenging the Trump administration’s tariffs. The Oregon Department of Justice earlier this month argued the case before the U.S. Supreme Court. n n“If the Supreme Court rules against the tariffs… It’s a tax cut nationally that would be worth about $200 to $250 billion, or here in Oregon a tax cut of probably $2-3 billion,” he said. n nMany of Oregon’s systems—our schools, regulations, land use rules and permitting processes—were built for a different time, to solve yesterday’s problems. But the future has never looked less like the past than it does right now. n n– John Tapogna, economic policy expert n nIn the meantime, Oregon’s unemployment rate rose to 5% this year, according to the latest state employment data available. That data doesn’t show the full picture, as the federal government didn’t release a monthly jobs report because of the government shutdown. n nOregon lost 18,000 nonfarming jobs between August 2024 and August 2025, ranging from jobs in manufacturing, construction and trade and transportation, according to Riccadonna. n nThe rise in unemployment is largely attributable to Multnomah and Washington counties, where large employers including Wells Fargo, Intel and Providence have laid off hundreds of employees working within the Portland metropolitan area. n nRecommendations for Oregon n nEconomic policy expert John Tapogna said Oregon’s policies are outdated for the challenges the state faces today. n nThe state’s population is moving at a slower rate than the country as a whole as deaths in Oregon outnumber births. While this could mean there’s less pressure on the housing market, Tapogna said it also means fewer people who are innovators or employed in the state’s child care, health care and education industries. n nHe recommended the state focus on five things to bring people to Oregon. n nFirst, he said Oregon should focus on making housing more affordable as housing prices continue to outpace household incomes. The median sale price of a home in Oregon is $513,000, according to housing website Redfin. Meanwhile, the median household income in 2024 was $89,700, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data. n nSecond, Oregon’s in the bottom half of states in reading and math scores among fourth and eight graders, according to the National Assessment for Education Progress. This disincentivizes families with children from moving to the state. n nThird, wildfire risk and the potential for poor air quality makes buying a home in Oregon less attractive. n nFourth, Oregon’s tax rate, particularly in Multnomah County, influences where households and businesses choose to move. n nLastly, Tapogna said Oregon needs to shift its perspective on growth and change the narrative to it being a good thing for the state. n n“ u200b u200bMany of Oregon’s systems—our schools, regulations, land use rules and permitting processes—were built for a different time, to solve yesterday’s problems,” he said. “But the future has never looked less like the past than it does right now.” n nOregon still has its strengths, he said, including its natural beauty, urban growth capacity without sprawl, its legacy of innovation and its potential for more clean energy. n n“I would argue that for any of us here, the next five to 10 years is going to change much more dramatically in terms of demography, in terms of technology, in terms of climate, than in any five year period you can think of in other times of your life,” Tapogna said