The outdoor hospitality industry is navigating a shifting landscape following the post-pandemic surge, with performance metrics now stabilizing around pre-2020 levels. According to Bob Kaplan, managing broker at NAI Outdoor Hospitality Brokers, the initial boom in occupancy and revenue per available site (RevPar) seen between 2020 and 2022 has faded. The 2023–2024 period brought reduced income and lower transient bookings, while 2025 presents varied outcomes across different properties. In contrast, seasonal and extended stays have remained steady or grown.
On the macroeconomic front, the U.S. economy expanded at a real annual rate of 3.8% in Q2 2025, supported by moderate job growth. However, inflation continues to exceed the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, partly due to ongoing tariff impacts. Wage increases are modest, and personal savings stand at 4.6%, below the two-decade average. Financial markets remain buoyant, driven largely by gains in seven major tech firms.
RV shipments rose 4.2% year-on-year in 2025, marking the second consecutive annual increase. Long-distance travel has recovered to pre-pandemic volumes and is expected to grow over the next 15 years. Meanwhile, mid-tier and budget hotels are seeing weakening occupancy and RevPar, unlike the glamping segment, which maintains strong demand.
In the debt market, 10-year Treasury yields remain above their 10-year mean but below the 40-year norm. The Federal Reserve is anticipated to continue easing monetary policy, having cut rates by 0.25% in October 2025 to support employment. Despite high government debt relative to GDP, lower borrowing costs are expected to boost commercial real estate investment. Capitalization rates may ease with falling interest rates, though available investor capital will likely keep spreads narrow. Sentiment in hospitality real estate remains cautiously optimistic, with a balanced dynamic between buyers and sellers.
Overall, the sector faces margin pressures and uneven performance, but underlying travel demand remains resilient despite challenges like inflation and housing affordability.
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‘NAI Outdoor Hospitality Brokers’ Offers Economic Outlook
EDITOR’S NOTE: Bob Kaplan, managing broker of NAI Outdoor Hospitality Brokers, presented an Economic Forecast for OHI at the 2025 Outdoor Hospitality Conference & Expo (OHCE). Below is a synopsis of his presentation, and then a download link to the slideshow he presented. n nThis presentation explores key trends, opportunities and insights for RV park and campground stakeholders. n n1. Operating Environment n nThe outdoor hospitality industry experienced a “COVID bump” from 2020-2022, with increased occupancy, RevPar, and ADR, but metrics have now returned to pre-COVID levels. n n2023-2024 saw lower occupancy and income, while 2025 shows mixed results across properties. u200b n nTransient business is declining, while seasonal and long-term stays are stable or increasing. u200b n n2. The Economy n nTotal employment shows moderate growth, and the U.S. economy continues to grow, with a 3.8% year-over-year real GDP growth in Q2 2025. n nInflation remains above the target rate of 2%, impacted by tariffs. u200b n nWage growth is moderate, but personal savings rates are low at 4.6%, below the 20-year average. u200b n nThe stock market is experiencing a rally, led by the “Magnificent 7” tech companies. u200b n n3. Hospitality & Leisure Industry Trends u200b n nRV shipments have increased for the second consecutive year, with total shipments up 4.2% year-over-year in 2025. n nLong-distance travel has rebounded to pre-pandemic levels and is projected to grow over the next 15 years. u200b n nHotel occupancy and RevPar are showing signs of weakness in 2025, particularly in mid-level and economy hotels. u200b n n4. Debt Market n n10-year Treasury bond rates are below the 40-year average but above the 10-year average. u200b n nThe Federal Reserve is expected to continue lowering rates to support the labor market, with a 0.25% rate cut in October 2025. n nU.S. government debt as a percentage of GDP is at historically high levels, exerting upward pressure on interest rates. u200b n n5. Commercial Real Estate Market u200b n nCap rates are expected to decompress as interest rates decrease, but dry powder will keep spreads low. u200b n nReal estate investment volume is expected to benefit from lower borrowing costs and stronger economic activity. u200b n nHospitality investment sentiment is mixed, with cautious optimism and a more balanced market between buyers and sellers. u200b n n6. Conclusions n nThe operating environment remains challenging, with compressed margins and varied results in 2025. u200b n nTravel demand is holding up, but mid-level and economy sectors are declining, while glamping remains strong. u200b n nInterest rates are down but not expected to return to 2020-2022 levels. u200b n nThe economy shows resilience despite challenges like inflation, housing affordability, and a stressed middle class. u200b n nTo download the full presentation, click here.