Rising tariffs, disruptions in federal funding, and a historic 43-day government shutdown have contributed to prolonged economic instability throughout the year, affecting both corporate planning and household finances. At a recent Springfield Business Journal CEO Roundtable, financial leaders highlighted how unpredictable trade policies and inconsistent labor market data have made economic forecasting increasingly difficult. A central debate among experts continues to revolve around whether current trends reflect an artificial surge driven by artificial intelligence investments or the early signs of an impending downturn.
Justin Setser from Central Trust Co. pointed out in November that the U.S. economy is exhibiting K-shaped characteristics—where wealthier individuals with investment portfolios and real estate holdings see growth, while lower-income groups face mounting financial pressure. He emphasized that inflation has severely impacted purchasing power, making everyday essentials harder to afford for many Americans. Despite overall stability, Setser observed a gradual deceleration in economic momentum.
Mid-December federal statistics revealed a net job loss when accounting for October’s 105,000 lost positions—largely due to workforce reductions under the Trump administration—offset partially by 64,000 new jobs in November. The national unemployment rate climbed to 4.6%, marking the highest level since 2021. Missouri Governor Mike Kehoe, speaking at a December 16 event hosted by the Springfield Business Journal, acknowledged the accuracy of the K-shaped description even if unfamiliar with the term. He noted that while wage increases tied to inflation tend to persist, there remains potential for relief if prices of goods decline.
Tariff policies enacted during the Trump administration have brought substantial revenue into federal coffers, yet local analysts caution that associated costs are now being absorbed across broader sectors. Matt Morrow, head of the Springfield Area Chamber of Commerce, stated that businesses view steep tariff hikes with apprehension, calling them a source of anxiety rather than optimism.
The extended government closure further intensified hardship, halting November disbursements of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits for millions. With one in nine Missouri residents depending on SNAP, community organizations scrambled to fill gaps in food support. Nonprofits already grappling with reduced federal allocations reported having to rapidly adapt as programs once considered secure were abruptly discontinued.
Brandy Harris of Boys & Girls Clubs of Springfield described a summer marked by constant uncertainty, where nearly daily updates signaled the potential elimination of vital services. Jaimie Trussell, CEO of Crosslines Community Outreach, echoed this sentiment, noting the sudden unreliability of previously dependable resources. Amid persistent inflation, mixed signals in employment data, and shrinking public assistance, regional leaders warn of growing financial strain on local populations.
— news from Springfield Business Journal
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No. 4: Economic uncertainty a yearlong theme
With tariffs rising, federal funding flows destabilizing and the U.S. enduring a record 43-day government shutdown this year, business and nonprofit leaders say economic uncertainty is straining budgets, planning and household stability. n nAt a recent Springfield Business Journal CEO Roundtable, financial executives said shifting tariff policies and inconsistent labor data have complicated forecasts. Conversations continue to center on whether the country is in an AI-driven bubble or moving toward recession. n nJustin Setser of Central Trust Co. noted in November that the U.S. is experiencing a K-shaped economy – one where those holding investments and real assets have prospered while lower-income households struggle. Inflation, he said, has made it difficult for many Americans “to afford the normal things in life.” Setser added that although the economy remains stable, it is “softening and slowing.” n nFederal data released in mid-December showed the U.S. gained 64,000 jobs in November but lost 105,000 in October, largely due to federal worker departures following Trump administration cuts. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since 2021. n nSpeaking at a Dec. 16 SBJ People You Need to Know event, Missouri Gov. Mike Kehoe said he wasn’t familiar with the term K-shaped economy but believed the description fit current conditions. He noted that wage growth driven by inflation rarely reverses, but that “the cost of goods can come down,” offering potential relief for working families. n nTariffs implemented by the Trump administration have generated billions in federal revenue, but local observers warn the costs are spreading. Springfield Area Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Matt Morrow said businesses are uneasy: “Significantly increased tariffs are not something that businesses look forward to, and they’re nervous.” n nThe government shutdown added more strain, suspending November Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits for millions nationwide. One in nine Missourians relies on SNAP, according to Ozarks Area Community Action Corp., and local agencies hustled to coordinate food assistance. n nNonprofits already facing federal cuts say instability is forcing quick shifts. Brandy Harris of Boys & Girls Clubs of Springfield said this summer that nearly every day brought a new update suggesting a beneficial program “is probably going away.” At Crosslines Community Outreach, CEO Jaimie Trussell said the speed of changes has been jarring, with previously stable supports “suddenly and without notice” no longer reliable. n nWith inflation, weak workforce signals and shrinking government safety nets, Springfield-area leaders warned that communities may face increasing economic challenges.