In a stark assessment of France’s economic trajectory, economist Nicolas Baverez has issued a dire warning about the country’s future, suggesting it may be on the verge of slipping into third-world status by the end of the decade. Writing in Le Figaro, Baverez introduces the controversial concept of “tiers-mondisation” – a term describing structural decline that could push France out of the ranks of major global powers. He now refers to his homeland as the “Argentina of Europe.”
France currently ranks 34th globally in wealth per capita, falling below 7% of the European average for the third consecutive year. It lags 25% behind Denmark, 20% behind Sweden, and even trails its own past performance by 15%. In 2024, individual wealth declined further, dropping below the European mean by 7%, while public debt has surged past 3.4 trillion euros – equivalent to approximately 117.4% of GDP.
This growing fiscal burden translates into a staggering personal liability: each of France’s 69 million citizens now carries a national financial obligation of 231,000 euros, roughly six years’ worth of average earnings. Baverez argues this is not a temporary setback but the outcome of a flawed political model that relies on debt-fueled consumption unsupported by real productivity gains.
The erosion of the middle class is accelerating. Despite rising life expectancy, annual working hours in France have decreased compared to counterparts in Germany, Italy, and the United States. Educational standards have also deteriorated, with France dropping from 13th to 26th globally in the PISA rankings since 2019, contributing to a 6% decline in productivity.
Baverez criticizes the 2026 budget for imposing an additional 44 billion euros in taxes, which he claims suffocates large enterprises – once seen as the backbone of the economy – to fund unproductive spending. This fiscal pressure, he warns, is turning the middle class into a struggling, working poor, fueling populist movements that thrive on economic discontent.
On the global stage, France is losing influence within the European Union, sidelined by emerging alliances such as the German-Italian rapprochement between Friedrich Merz and Giorgia Meloni. Baverez laments that the nation is ill-equipped to meet 21st-century challenges, from artificial intelligence to environmental transformation and military rearmament, and risks fading from the top ten global economies.
However, he insists this decline is not inevitable but the result of repeated political missteps and compromises. His proposed remedy is a shock therapy approach: shifting from a consumption-driven economy to one centered on production and innovation, halting excessive borrowing and taxation, and restoring the value of labor and education as foundational pillars for regaining national sovereignty.
Ultimately, Baverez’s analysis serves as both an economic and political wake-up call: France must choose between the illusion of debt-financed comfort and the painful but necessary path toward reclaiming its global standing before the specter of third-world status becomes an irreversible social reality.
— news from aljazeera.net