Economists are increasingly concerned about the possibility of a recession in the US, driven by uncertainty over tariffs and job market pressures. Bentley University’s Laura Jackson Young highlights that businesses and households are becoming more cautious in their spending plans due to lack of clarity about the economic future. Mark Zandi of Moody’s estimates the risk of a recession in 2025 at 35%, up from 15% at the start of the year. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers attributes the heightened risks to counterproductive economic policies, particularly tariffs, which have chilled demand and caused price increases. Morgan Stanley’s Michael Gapen assesses the likelihood of a recession at 20% to 25%, noting that tariffs could push inflation upward in the short term. Employment growth and consumer spending remain critical factors in determining whether a recession will occur. — news from Quartz
