Goldman Sachs has reduced its forecast for a U.S. recession in the next 12 months to 30%, down from 35%, citing reduced uncertainty around trade policies following a deal between the U.S. and China. The agreement addresses tariff rates and includes the removal of Chinese export restrictions on rare earth minerals, alongside granting Chinese students access to U.S. universities. Investors welcomed the news, which eased fears of economic instability after previous tariff announcements disrupted global markets. Goldman noted that inflation data suggests a limited impact on consumer prices from tariffs, while financial conditions have improved. The firm also raised its 2025 U.S. GDP growth projection to 1.25% from 1%.
— new from Reuters
