June 17 (Reuters) – Citi has revised its short-term and long-term price targets for gold, projecting that prices could fall below $3,000 per ounce by late 2025 or early 2026. This adjustment is driven by declining investment demand and an improving global growth outlook, according to a note released by the bank on Monday. The bank lowered its 0-3 month and 6-12 month gold price targets to $3,300 per ounce from $3,500 and $2,800 per ounce from $3,000, respectively. Citi expects gold prices to consolidate between $3,100-$3,500 per ounce in the third quarter, supported by geopolitical risks, potential U.S. tariff policy changes, and U.S. budget concerns, before a downward trend begins. “We anticipate investment demand for gold to decline in late 2025 and 2026, as President Trump’s popularity and U.S. growth prospects improve, especially as the U.S. mid-term elections approach,” Citi noted. The bank forecasts that gold could return to around $2,500-$2,700 per ounce by the second half of 2026. In a bullish scenario, gold prices could exceed $3,500 per ounce in the third quarter due to stronger hedging and investment demand amid U.S. economic and geopolitical tensions. Conversely, in a bearish scenario, prices could fall below $3,000 per ounce as tariff disputes are resolved, geopolitical risks ease, and the U.S. economy avoids a hard landing. However, emerging market central bank buying could keep prices elevated. Citi assigned only a 20% probability to both their bullish and bearish scenarios. In contrast to gold’s cautious outlook, Citi forecasts silver prices to rise to $40 per ounce over the next 6-12 months, driven by tightening availability and robust demand. Silver could potentially reach $46 per ounce by the third quarter of 2025 in a bullish scenario, bolstered by a quicker resolution to the U.S.-China trade war and hawkish Federal Reserve policy, the bank added.
— new from Reuters
