The Bank of Japan kept its key interest rate unchanged on Thursday, maintaining the short-term rate at 0.5% as widely anticipated. Despite this pause, the central bank reaffirmed its readiness to raise borrowing costs further if economic conditions continue to evolve in line with projections. n nDissent emerged within the policy board, with members Naoki Tamura and Hajime Takata opposing the decision, reiterating their earlier proposal from September to lift the rate to 0.75%. This highlights a growing divide between policymakers favoring tighter monetary conditions and those urging caution. n nIn its quarterly outlook report released Thursday, the bank slightly upgraded its forecast for economic growth in the current fiscal year ending March 2026. It also revised upward its inflation expectations for the 2026 fiscal period. The core inflation rate is projected to reach 2% in the latter half of the forecast window extending to March 2027, maintaining the same phrasing used in its July report. n nOfficials noted that risks surrounding the inflation outlook are “broadly balanced,” suggesting neither significant upside nor downside pressure dominates. The report emphasized that should economic and price developments follow the expected path, the central bank will proceed with additional rate increases and adjust monetary accommodation accordingly. n nMarket participants are now focusing on Governor Kazuo Ueda’s post-meeting press conference for clues about the timing and pace of future tightening. Fred Neumann, HSBC’s chief economist for Hong Kong, commented that the Bank of Japan is moving cautiously but steadily, stating, “With inflation holding firm and economic momentum on track, the question isn’t whether rates will rise, but when.” He added that while markets have delayed their expectations for tightening, an earlier-than-expected hike remains possible. n nThe central bank faces internal and external challenges. Domestically, the recent appointment of new Prime Minister Sanae Takahashi has introduced uncertainty, as she is known to support accommodative monetary policies. This shift has led financial markets to scale back bets on a rate increase in October. Internationally, the impact of potential U.S. tariff policies under former President Donald Trump and the Federal Reserve’s own divided stance—evidenced by its recent rate cut amid strong internal disagreements—add complexity to Japan’s policy decisions. n nAlthough the Bank of Japan ended its decade-long quantitative easing program last year and raised rates to 0.5% in January upon believing sustainable 2% inflation was within reach, Governor Ueda remains cautious. He fears that external shocks, particularly U.S. trade measures, could disrupt the wage-price cycle essential for normalizing monetary policy. n nNonetheless, most economists surveyed by Reuters expect a rate hike either in October or December, with nearly all forecasting the benchmark rate to reach 0.75% by the end of March 2026. Support for a more aggressive stance may come from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who has urged faster rate increases to prevent excessive yen weakening. n
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benk alyaban ythts asr alfaedt wyubqa ala i7tmal rfa3ha msstqblan : CNN alishtytyt
Aqb albank almarkzy s3r alfaedt alqasry alajl 3nd 0.5%. n nghayr ann a3dawy majls aladara nawky tamwra whajymy takata e3tradwa 3la alqarar, mkrarn maqrhatyhama alsabqa fy sbr aylwl brfa3 alfaedt el 0.75%. n nfy trbr altaqwat alfasly alzhy sdr alkhams, rfa3 albank taqawwath laalnmw alqysmy bshkl tphy llson almalyy alhythyr fy mars aylwl 2026, kma 3ddal baltzyadr taqawwath laaltfltn khlal alson almalyy 2026. n nashar bank al-yaban ala annahu yataqawwa an yasil m3dal al-tfltn al-asly 2% fy al-nsf al-thany min fatrat al-taqawwam al-mumtada ta al-mars al-thalith 2027, ma3 al-hfaz 3ala al-sygara al-dhatma fy trbr yulyw al-maly. n nwaqal albank anna al-mkhatr al-mhtta b-awal al-taqawwam al-tfltn “mtwazna el hddl kabyr”. n nwa jaa fy al-taqarar: “a2a t7aqqt taqawwathna bsh2l al-2isly wal-as3ar, f-snwastmy rfa3 s3r al-faedt al-asasy, w-snadhr ms2twa al-da3m al-nqdy b-altmsyq ma3 tmayz al-2isly wal-as3ar”. n nmn al-muntazar an yurakz al-mustathmrun 3ala al-m2mr al-sahfy al-dzy ys3qduh al-hakm kazw2 oyd3 ba3d al-2ijtm3, b7thhan 3an ay 2isharat t3laqan b-tawqyt w-tary3 al-zyadat al-mstqblty fy al-faedt. n nqal fared nywman, kbyr al-2qtsadyyn fy bnk hsby fy hong kong, an “bnk al-yaban ysr b-7dhwr n7wb rfa3, w-m3 baqa2 al-tfltn mrfty3an, w-astmrar al-ad22 al-2qtsady fy msar jyd, w-tzayd al-da3m al-maly, f-ans al-ms2ala ms2ala twqyt la akthar”, wa zad an “al-aswqat qad arj2at taqawwatha l-tashdyd al-syasat al-nqdy, lakn al-bnk al-markzy al-yaban qad y2dm 3la al-rfa3 fy wqt aqrb mma hw mttaq”, n w-yshhd majls idara al-bank inqisma byn mu2ydyn la-al-tashdyd al-nqdy yrdwn al-zhwr mhay2a lrfa3 al-faedt, w-mhtfzyn mthl oyd3 yfddln antzar mzyd min al-byant la-tqdyer mdar t2thyr btawba2 al-2isly al-amryky w-rsmy al-rayys dnald trman al-jmrkyty. n nkmath khaymat halat la al-yaqyn b-sh2l t2thyr al-rsmy al-jmrky al2mryky 3la mnqshat majls al-7jzr al-fdry al-amryky, al-dzy aqr khfa2an akhr la-al-faedt al-ywm al-arby32 ba2labya mnqasma, fy zl “ikhtlfat qwyat fy al-r2y” byn a3dah b-sh2l msar al-syasat al-mstqblty, wfq ma qalh ra2ys al-majls jyrwm pawl. n ntkhylat syasyt jdydt amam bnk al-yaban n n3la al-tqadymat al-kharyjyt, zadt al-t7wl al-syasyt mn ta3qyd qararat bnk al-yaban, faqad khfa2at al-aswqat rhatanha 3la rfa3 al-faedt fy aktwbr al-tashryn al-b3d twly ra2ys al-wzara al-jdyd sna2 takayshy mhamalha al-asbu3 al-maly, wa hy ma3rwa b-d3mha la-al-syasat al-nqdyt al-mysrt. n nma3 baqa2 al-tfltn fwq hadaf al-bank la-akthar mn thlath snyat, twq3 galbyat al-2qtsadyyn al-dzyn shamlhm asttla3 lrwytrz an yrf3 bnk al-yaban al-faedt 2ma fy aktwbr al-tashryn al-b3 w-2mbr al-kawn al-thany, w-twq3w jmy3an taqryban an yasil al-mdar el 0.75% b-kwnt nhyt mars. n nqad yjed sqwr al-syasat al-nqdyt fy majls al-bank da3man mn wzyr al-khzan al-amryky skwt bysnt, al-dzy da3a 2la tasry3 wtry3 rfa3 al-faedt ljtnb d3f al-3mla al-mfrt. n nkan bnk al-yaban qd anta al-3am al-maly brnamj al-t7fyz al-kbyr al-dzy astmr 3qd kamln, w-rfa3 al-faedt el 0.5% fy yanyr al-kanwn ba3dma ra2a an al-blad bat al-qrb mna wsl hadaf al-tfltn al-balgh 2% b-shkl mustdam. n nwrgh an oyd3 abda2 ast3dad al-bank lwastmy rfa3 al-faedt, f-hwa ikhtar al-thar3 b-hdhwr kshyan an t2thyr al-rsmy al-jmrky al-amryky 2la an tw2dy al-dwrat al-mqamat al-2ajr wal-as3ar, wa hy shrt asasy lwastmrar al-syasat al-nqdyt.