Experts suggest that the proposed 3.5 percent tax on remittances from the United States will have minimal economic and revenue impact, despite its significant role in the political narrative of the U.S. government. The tax could encourage informal money transfer channels, according to specialists. Genoveva Roldán, a lead researcher at UNAM’s Economic Research Institute, argued that the revenue generated from such a tax would be low and not substantial, as it would reduce remittance flows to other countries and push senders towards informal channels. Gerónimo Ugarte, Chief Economist at Valmex Casa de Bolsa, noted that the tax would not apply to the total remittance amount received by Mexico, as only about a third of senders, roughly four million migrants, would be affected. He explained that migrants might adjust their consumption patterns in the U.S. to continue sending the same amounts. Both UNAM and Valmex highlighted potential negative impacts on remittance service providers, who could see reduced transactions and income, prompting them to oppose the tax. Rodrigo Villegas, Founder and CEO of Suass Group, added that remittances are part of U.S. President Donald Trump’s economic policy aimed at increasing revenue without raising debt. Concerns remain over the use of informal channels, with Roldán warning that migrants might resort to unofficial means for transactions, potentially involving organized crime. Ugarte urged against fostering a hostile environment in Mexico-U.S. relations amid ongoing negotiations to prevent the tax proposal.
— new from El Financiero
