Argentina is positioning itself for sustained economic growth by 2026 following two years of rigorous macroeconomic reforms that have stabilized its financial landscape. Initiated in December 2023, a comprehensive policy package focused on fiscal tightening, ending central bank financing of deficits, and implementing a managed exchange-rate system—starting with a steep devaluation and followed by a gradual crawl—has laid the groundwork for renewed investor confidence. These efforts, complemented by deregulation and structural adjustments, led to the nation’s first primary fiscal surplus in over ten years, amounting to 1.8% of GDP in 2024. This achievement has been instrumental in driving disinflation. n nInflation, which surged to nearly 300% in 2024, is forecast to decline to 29.4% in 2025 and further to 13.7% in 2026, supported by disciplined monetary policy and credible nominal anchors. By late 2025, monthly inflation had settled around 2%, indicating progress toward price stability and restoring trust in the peso. n nAfter contractions in 2023 and 2024, GDP is expected to expand by 4% in 2025 before moderating to 3.5% in 2026 as the economy shifts from stabilization to expansion. The upturn is being driven by stronger consumer spending and construction activity, both benefiting from wage improvements and rising private investment. Additionally, energy and mining sectors are emerging as key engines of growth. Oil and gas output is accelerating due to developments in the Vaca Muerta shale formation, aided by new pipeline infrastructure and liquefied natural gas export initiatives. These advances are transforming Argentina into a net energy exporter, reversing years of trade deficits in this sector. n nThe mining industry, particularly lithium and copper, is also gaining momentum under the Large Investment Incentive Regime (RIGI), which guarantees tax and foreign exchange stability for three decades on qualifying projects exceeding US$200 million. Announced investments across energy, mining, and infrastructure already surpass US$30 billion, reflecting strong international interest in Argentina’s resource potential and improved regulatory environment. This influx is expected to further stimulate capital formation as projects move forward. n nExternal accounts are improving, with trade surpluses projected at US$9 billion in 2025 and US$13 billion in 2026, despite rising imports linked to investment-led growth. Central bank net international reserves, which were negative US$11 billion in late 2023, are on track to turn positive in 2026, supported by IMF disbursements and capital inflows under RIGI. This bolstering of reserves, combined with fiscal discipline, has strengthened Argentina’s external position and reduced vulnerability to global shocks. n nFinancial conditions have markedly improved. Country risk premiums have dropped from 2,500 basis points in late 2023 to approximately 600 by end-2025, reflecting gains in fiscal balance, structural reforms, and reserve accumulation. Argentina is anticipated to regain access to international capital markets in 2026, contingent on maintaining fiscal surpluses and policy credibility. Such normalization will be crucial for refinancing debt and supporting long-term investment. n nFurther structural changes—including tax reform, privatization frameworks, labor market modernization, and full capital account liberalization expected by 2026—are designed to enhance competitiveness and attract sustained foreign investment. Together with RIGI, these measures aim to create a stable and predictable climate for large-scale ventures in energy, mining, and infrastructure, reinforcing Argentina’s role as a regional hub for resource-based industries and renewable energy development. n nThe outlook for 2026 is significantly brighter than in prior years. Argentina is projected to maintain fiscal prudence, deepen institutional reforms, and leverage its natural resources to sustain growth while reducing inflation and rebuilding market trust. The main challenge lies in preserving policy credibility, speeding up regulatory normalization, and attracting foreign capital to solidify the transition from stabilization to durable development. If these conditions are met, the country could enter a new era of macroeconomic stability and investment-led expansion, reversing decades of volatility and establishing itself as a competitive player in global energy and mining markets. n— news from Deloitte
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Global economic outlook 2026
Argentina n n– Daniel Zaga and Federico Di Yenno n nArgentina will enter 2026 after two years of profound macroeconomic adjustment that reshaped its policy framework and restored a degree of stability to an economy long challenged by chronic imbalances. The program launched in December 2023 combined fiscal consolidation, the elimination of central bank monetary financing, and a managed exchange-rate regime that began with a sharp devaluation and continued with a gradual crawl to anchor expectations. n nThese measures, reinforced by structural reforms and deregulation, delivered Argentina’s first primary fiscal surplus in over a decade—1.8% of gross domestic product in 2024 1—and set the foundation for sustained disinflation. n nInflation, which peaked near 300% in 2024, is projected to fall to 29.4% in 2025 and 13.7% in 2026, supported by tight monetary policy and credible nominal anchors. Monthly inflation stabilized around 2% by late 2025, signaling progress toward price normalization and restoring confidence in the domestic currency. n nEconomic prospects have improved markedly. After contractions in 2023 and 2024, GDP growth is expected to rebound by 4% in 2025 and moderate to 3.5% in 2026 as the economy transitions from stabilization to expansion. The recovery is led by consumption and construction—sectors revitalized by wage recovery and private investment—while the energy and mining sectors emerge as strategic growth drivers. n nOil and gas production is accelerating thanks to the Vaca Muerta shale, supported by new pipelines and liquefied natural gas export projects, positioning Argentina as a net energy exporter and generating an energy trade surplus after years of deficits.2 Mining, particularly lithium and copper, is also set to benefit from the Large Investment Incentive Regime (or “RIGI”), which guarantees tax and foreign exchange stability for 30 years on projects exceeding US$200 million. Announced investments already surpass US$30 billion across energy, mining, and infrastructure, signaling strong investor confidence in Argentina’s resource potential and regulatory framework. This is expected to boost investment further, as these projects advance.3 n nExternal accounts remain favorable, with a trade surplus projected at US$9 billion in 2025 and US$13 billion in 2026, despite imports recovering alongside investment-led growth.4 Net international reserves of the central bank, which stood at negative US$11 billion in late 2023, are expected to turn positive in 2026, aided by International Monetary Fund disbursements and capital inflows under the RIGI. This improvement in reserves, combined with a credible fiscal anchor, has strengthened Argentina’s external position and reduced vulnerability to external shocks. n nFinancial conditions have also improved significantly. Country risk ratings fell from 2,500 basis points in late 2023 to around 600 by end-2025, reflecting fiscal consolidation, structural reforms, and progress in reserve accumulation. Argentina is expected to regain market access in 2026, contingent on sustained fiscal surpluses and continued credibility of the macroeconomic framework. This normalization of financial conditions will be critical for refinancing obligations and supporting long-term investment. n nStructural reforms—including tax restructuring, privatization frameworks, labor market modernization, and full capital account liberalization expected to be achieved in 2026—aim to consolidate competitiveness and attract long-term investment. These reforms, together with the RIGI, provide a stable and predictable environment for large-scale projects in energy, mining, and infrastructure, reinforcing Argentina’s potential as a regional hub for resource-based industries and renewable energy development. n nThe outlook for 2026 is therefore considerably more positive than in previous years. Argentina is projected to maintain fiscal discipline, deepen structural reforms, and leverage its resource endowment to secure growth while reducing inflation and restoring market confidence. The challenge ahead lies in sustaining credibility, accelerating regulatory normalization, and attracting foreign capital to consolidate the transition from stabilization to sustainable development. If these conditions are met, Argentina could enter a new phase of macroeconomic stability and investment-driven growth, reversing decades of volatility and positioning itself as a competitive player in global energy and mining markets.