The question of whether the U.S. economy has entered a recession since 2022 has sparked widespread debate among economists and policymakers. While official determinations rely on data from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), public perception has been shaped by a mix of inflation trends, labor market shifts, and consumer sentiment.
Though the economy experienced two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in mid-2022—a common but unofficial benchmark for recession—employment levels remained robust, with steady job creation throughout the period. This divergence led many analysts to argue that the U.S. avoided a broad-based economic downturn despite inflation reaching 40-year highs.
In 2023 and 2024, the Federal Reserve implemented a series of interest rate hikes to combat inflation, which peaked at 9.1% in June 2022. These monetary tightening measures slowed spending and investment in interest-sensitive sectors such as housing and automotive, contributing to concerns about economic cooling.
However, labor markets have remained resilient, with unemployment staying below 4% for much of the post-pandemic recovery. Wage growth, particularly in service industries, has helped sustain consumer spending, a key driver of GDP.
Economists caution against relying solely on GDP metrics, emphasizing that modern recessions are assessed using a range of indicators, including industrial production, real income, and retail sales. As of 2025, most leading economic indexes suggest the U.S. has navigated a “soft landing” rather than entered a prolonged contraction.
Nonetheless, regional disparities persist, and small businesses continue to face challenges from high borrowing costs and supply chain adjustments. The absence of a formal recession declaration by the NBER indicates that, technically, the U.S. did not enter a nationwide economic downturn during this period, though pockets of economic stress remain.
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Has the U.S. been in an economic recession since 2022?
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