Bolivia’s presidential election, which held its first round on August 17 and is set for a runoff on October 19, reflects a significant transformation in the country’s political dynamics. Once dominated by the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS), Bolivia now appears poised for a shift toward right-leaning leadership amid economic instability and declining public confidence in the long-standing ruling party. n nLeonardo Vivas, a political economy professor at Lesley University, notes that despite Bolivia’s small size and landlocked position, its democratic processes offer insight into broader Latin American trends. Unlike countries such as Venezuela or Nicaragua, where democratic norms have weakened, Bolivia continues to resolve political disputes through institutional means. Vivas expects a clear electoral outcome that will be accepted by all major actors. n nThe decline of MAS, founded by Evo Morales in the 1990s and dominant for nearly three decades, marks a pivotal moment. Under Morales, Bolivia experienced an economic upswing fueled by natural gas exports, poverty reduction, and greater inclusion of indigenous populations. Finance Minister Luis Arce played a central role in that era of growth. However, the economic model has since unraveled due to declining performance in state-owned energy firms, shrinking revenues, and mounting pressure on the national currency. n nArce, now the incumbent president, faces a severe financial crisis characterized by capital controls and sluggish economic expansion. With low approval ratings, he chose not to run for re-election. Morales, once a dominant political figure, is now constrained by legal barriers and ongoing legal proceedings related to statutory rape allegations. His calls for new elections have failed to gain traction, further fragmenting the MAS movement. n nIn the first round, MAS candidates—Senate President Andronico Rodriguez and a former interior minister—performed poorly and were eliminated. The top two finishers were Rodrigo Paz Pereira, a centrist from the Christian Democratic Party, and conservative Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, who advocates for reforms backed by the International Monetary Fund. Vivas interprets the race as a contest between a fading leftist legacy and a revitalized right. n nEconomic hardship has replaced identity politics as the central issue. While indigenous rights and social inclusion drove support in earlier years, today’s electorate—especially younger, urban, and educated voters—is more focused on economic prospects and governance. Many no longer align with MAS, viewing it as responsible for the current downturn. n nIndigenous voting patterns reflect this shift: Morales retains backing in highland regions, but lowland communities are increasingly supportive of opposition candidates. n nVivas anticipates a runoff between the two leading contenders and considers a right-wing victory plausible. Such an outcome would align Bolivia with regional peers like Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Ecuador, where power alternates between left and right. This normalization would signify Bolivia’s reintegration into mainstream democratic cycles in Latin America. n nOn the international front, U.S. influence in the region has waned, with China playing a more cautious role after financial setbacks in Venezuela. While Beijing maintains trade ties regardless of political leadership, it remains hesitant to invest in Bolivia’s struggling state enterprises. Brazil, under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and as interim head of BRICS, has proposed alternative financing mechanisms, though their feasibility depends on ideological alignment. n nDespite the challenges, Vivas expresses cautious optimism. He believes Bolivia has an opportunity to reset its political and economic trajectory, regardless of the election outcome. The 2025 vote could mark the end of MAS’s prolonged dominance and the beginning of a more balanced democratic era with broader implications for the region. n
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FO° Talks: Bolivia: Fuel and Economic Crisis Lead to Widespread Support for the Right
[This video was recorded in the days preceding the first round of Bolivia’s election. It has been updated to include more recent information.] n nRohan Khattar Singh, Fair Observer’s Video Producer & Social Media Manager, talks with Leonardo Vivas, professor of political economy at Leslie University in Massachusetts, about Bolivia’s presidential election. It had its first round of votes on August 17 and will have a run-off vote on October 19. This conversation examines why these elections matter, the collapse of the long-dominant Movement Toward Socialism (Movimiento al Socialismo, or MAS), the weakened roles of former Bolivian President Evo Morales and incumbent Bolivian President Luis Arce, and more. n nWhy Bolivia matters n nVivas begins by noting that Bolivia, a small landlocked country, might seem peripheral to global politics, but its elections reflect important regional dynamics. In Latin America, most conflicts in recent decades have been resolved through democratic institutions rather than violence, with the exceptions of Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua and increasingly El Salvador. He argues Bolivia is likely to continue this democratic pattern: There will be a clear winner, and institutions will accept the outcome. n nThe second reason for global attention is the apparent “demise” of MAS, the party founded by Morales in the 1990s and dominant for nearly 30 years. Vivas believes its decline could reshape local geopolitics, breaking one of the region’s longest political hegemonies. n nThe race and the MAS collapse n nThe field of candidates reflects MAS’s diminished standing. Morales’s former protégé, Arce, opted not to run again due to poor approval ratings. Two MAS candidates competed — Senate president Andronico Rodriguez and Arce’s former interior minister — but both polled poorly and will not continue to the second round of the vote. n nThe opposition appears stronger. Samuel Doria Medina, a wealthy businessman, campaigned as a moderate, aiming to unify the country. His rival, former Bolivian President Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, takes a harder right stance, promising IMF-backed reforms and economic stabilization. Vivas frames the contest as a struggle between a fading MAS and a reenergized right. n nIn the first round of the vote, Senator Rodrigo Paz Pereira, a centrist from the Christian Democratic Party, and Quiroga, a conservative, came in first and second place, respectively. n nMorales, Arce and the end of an era n nFor much of the 2000s, Morales oversaw what could be called a “Bolivian miracle.” Gas exports funded poverty reduction and indigenous inclusion, with then-Finance Minister Arce shaping the economic boom. Yet the model collapsed as state-owned gas firms faltered, revenues plunged and exchange-rate pressures deepened. n nToday, Arce faces a financial crisis marked by exchange controls and slowing growth. With his political support underwater, he chose not to seek reelection. Morales, once a towering figure, is now legally and politically sidelined. A constitutional court ruling bars him from running; his recent protest calls fell flat and he faces prosecution for statutory rape, further eroding his influence. n nMorales has refused to endorse MAS’s current candidates and has instead called for new elections, further fragmenting the movement he once embodied. n nThe army on the sidelines n nMilitary involvement in Bolivian politics has long been a concern, especially after Morales’s 2019 departure under army pressure. But Vivas stresses that today’s army plays little role. A supposed coup attempt last year proved hollow; General Juan José Zúñiga acted alone and was quickly rejected by both society and the president. Some even suspect the episode was staged to boost Arce’s legitimacy. n nCompared to 2019, when the military simply facilitated a constitutional transfer of power, today’s officers remain firmly in the barracks. Vivas does not foresee the army influencing this year’s election. n nEconomy and the younger vote n nThe central issue now is the economy. During Morales’s rise, indigenous identity and social inclusion drove politics. After decades of reform, indigenous participation is normalized. Economic hardship — falling gas revenues, high inflation and slow growth — has replaced identity as the defining theme. n nThe generational shift is also decisive. Younger Bolivians, more urban and educated, care less about old ideological battles and more about future prospects. Many no longer rally behind Morales or MAS, instead leaning toward opposition candidates. Vivas highlights that MAS, as the architect of the current crisis, cannot credibly present itself as the solution. n nIndigenous voting patterns reflect this shift: Morales still retains support in the highlands, but lowland communities lean right, accelerating MAS’s decline. n nRound two is inevitable n nVivas correctly assumes that the election will head to a runoff. He believes it is possible, though not guaranteed, that both right-wing candidates advance to the second round. Much depends on whether MAS’s residual support materializes late in the race. n nBased on pre-election information, Vivas sees the likely outcome as a right-wing victory. This would normalize Bolivian politics, making it resemble Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Ecuador, where power alternates between left and right. For him, that normalization marks Bolivia’s reintegration into regional democratic trends. n nExternal players: US, China and Brazil n nVivas also considers the international angle. The United States has lost much of its regional influence, supplanted by China’s growing role. Washington’s attention has shifted to global crises, leaving Latin America low on the agenda. Vivas sees US President Donald Trump’s current administration as “playing wait and see” while expecting right-wing gains across the region. n nChina’s involvement is more cautious. Burned by its unpaid investments in Venezuela, Beijing is wary of Bolivia’s struggling state-owned companies and is unlikely to engage deeply if MAS wins. Still, China maintains strong trade links, regardless of ideology. n nBrazil, under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, could prove more active. As interim head of BRICS, Lula has suggested BRICS could replace the IMF as a source of financing for Bolivia. But such programs remain untested, and Vivas doubts they would materialize unless Bolivia’s government aligns with BRICS priorities. n nCautious optimism n nDespite crises, Vivas ends on a hopeful note. He believes Bolivia has a real chance, no matter who wins, to reset its politics and rebuild its economy. For him, the 2025 election could mark both the end of an era dominated by MAS and the beginning of a more balanced, democratic cycle with wider implications for Latin America. n n[Lee Thompson-Kolar edited this piece.]