With over 3,000 presentations delivered throughout his career, economist Mike Walden continues to engage audiences on economic topics even after retirement from NC State University. His talks follow a consistent structure: beginning with a lighthearted joke about economists to ease the mood, followed by an overview of current economic conditions, including business performance, labor markets, inflation, and interest rates. He then reviews fiscal and monetary policy, with attention to actions by the President, Congress, and the Federal Reserve. n nAfter discussing the North Carolina economy in relation to national trends, Walden turns to what listeners are most eager to hear—predictions about the future. Audiences frequently ask about inflation trajectories, job market strength, the impact of artificial intelligence on employment, interest rate movements, and stock market performance. Walden humorously notes that his most reliable forecast for the stock market is that it will fluctuate. n nWhile historical and current economic data are grounded in measurable facts, forecasting involves making informed assumptions about uncertain variables. Economists rely on models—mathematical frameworks that simulate economic interactions—to project outcomes. For instance, when the Federal Reserve lowers its benchmark interest rate, analysts can input this change into a model to estimate its effects on borrowing, home purchases, and vehicle sales. n nDespite these tools, economic predictions are accurate only 20% to 30% of the time, according to most surveys. Given that economics has existed as a formal discipline for about 250 years, one might expect more precision. However, Walden emphasizes that economics is a social science, not a physical one. Unlike physics or chemistry, where natural laws are consistent, human behavior is fluid and influenced by shifting attitudes and decisions. n nA recent example is the post-pandemic inflation surge, which reached over 9% year-over-year—the highest in four decades. Most economists had anticipated moderate inflation and high unemployment as the main challenges. Instead, prices soared while joblessness dropped sharply. This divergence occurred because pre-pandemic models failed to account for behavioral shifts, such as older workers delaying return due to health concerns and younger employees reevaluating work-life balance, leading to the “great resignation.” Job turnover doubled between 2020 and 2022, reducing labor supply and contributing to supply-demand imbalances that pushed prices upward. n nWalden advises considering multiple forecasts and looking for consensus. However, he urges extra caution when major economic shifts occur—such as new tariff policies or widespread adoption of AI—since these can disrupt established patterns and render existing models less effective. n nIn conclusion, while economic forecasts offer valuable insights, they should be approached with healthy skepticism. Context matters, and understanding the limitations of prediction is key to making informed decisions.
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By Mike Walden n nAs I have mentioned in previous columns, I’ve made over 3,000 presentations in my career as an economist. Most of them occurred during my 43-year career at NC State, but as a retiree, I am still asked to speak, and I try to accommodate the requests. Talking economics is one of my favorite activities! n nI have a standard format for my presentations. I begin with a joke, usually one that involves economists. I like to put people in a jovial mood, and I also like to demonstrate that economists and economics — which many think are both dull — can be funny. n nI then open the formal presentation by discussing the current economy, focusing on the situation for businesses, the job market, and, of course, inflation and interest rates. I next move to economic policy and review proposals and debates between the President and Congress, followed by a discussion of the Federal Reserve (the “Fed”). n nAfter some comments about the North Carolina economy and its comparison to the national economy, I move to what audiences really want to hear about — forecasts for the future. Audiences want to know where inflation is headed, how good or bad the job market will be, what jobs will be helped and what jobs will be hurt by AI (artificial intelligence), whether interest rates will rise or fall, and, of course, what will happen to the stock market. My somewhat humorous, but true, forecast for the stock market is that it will fluctuate. n nTalking about the past and current economy because we have the numbers. Making forecasts is another matter because we have to make educated guesses about the unknown. n nEconomists make economic forecasts based on their knowledge of the interactions in the economy. Economists formalize these interactions by developing “models” of the economy. An economic model is a mathematical representation of the interactions of the economy. Once developed, users input data and then let the model predict the economic results. n nFor example, recently the Fed lowered its key interest rate. Many expect this move will cause other interest rates to also fall, and therefore will increase economic activities like purchasing homes, vehicles and other big-ticket items where borrowing is needed. Users of economic models can input the information on the size of the Fed’s interest rate drop into the model and then let it calculate the impacts on various economic outcomes, such as how much home building and homebuying are expected to increase. n nHence, it appears economists have a straightforward way of making accurate predictions. Why, then, is the economics profession often wrong with its forecasts? Indeed, most surveys show economists are correct in their predictions only 20% to 30% of the time. Economics as a discipline has been around 250 years. Shouldn’t that be enough time to have worked out the kinks and made forecasts more reliable? n nHere’s my answer. Economics is a “social science” and not a “physical science.” Physical sciences like physics, chemistry and geology are based on the non-living natural world. Relationships and reactions are specific and long-lasting; hence, predictions are virtually certain. n nIn contrast, economics is a social science, along with sociology, psychology, and anthropology. These disciplines study behavior in the living human world. Hence, relationships are subject to change as a result of human decisions. For example, how people who are considering borrowing react to lower interest rates can vary from year to year, and it may take economists some time to discover the change and use it in their forecasts. n nHere’s a good recent example. After the pandemic, there was a surge in the inflation rate. The year-over-year inflation rate rose to over 9% — the highest in forty years. The consensus view among economists and policymakers had been that inflation would remain moderate while the high unemployment rate, which jumped during the pandemic, would be the problem. But the exact opposite happened, with prices rapidly rising while the jobless rate plunged. n nThe mistake was the economic models were based on the reactions of workers, consumers and businesses that existed prior to the pandemic. However, the pandemic changed many attitudes about the economy, particularly in the labor market. Many older workers delayed returning to working because they were still fearful of being exposed to COVID. But more important were the changes in work attitudes among young workers. Equipped with funds to pay their bills made available from the numerous government programs created during COVID, such as stimulus checks, the “great resignation” occurred during and immediately after COVID. Annual job quits doubled between 2020 and 2022. With fewer workers, many companies couldn’t produce enough to keep up with the post-COVID spending, so prices jumped. n nMy advice is to consider many economic forecasts and see if there is some degree of consistency. However, be particularly cautious of forecasts following significant changes in the economy. Today’s imposition of tariffs is one of those potential “game-changing” situations, as is the application of AI in the economy. Both will change forecasts. n nShould you listen to economists’ forecasts? I think you should, but with some caution and skepticism. But you decide.