The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that by next year, the positive effects of the so-called megabill will begin to outweigh the adverse consequences of tariffs and restrictive immigration measures, leading to a modest uptick in GDP growth compared to earlier forecasts. n nAs the nation approaches the 2028 presidential election, the cumulative impact of Republican-led initiatives is expected to result in a near-neutral effect on economic expansion. n nDuring 2027 and 2028, the initial stimulus from the GOP’s legislative package will diminish as tighter immigration rules reduce labor force availability, creating what the budget watchdog describes as a ‘drag’ on output. However, this setback will be partially counterbalanced by higher tariffs, which are anticipated to encourage more domestic manufacturing and local production. n nUltimately, when voters cast their ballots in November 2028, real GDP is projected to stand just 0.1 percent above the level anticipated before Donald Trump assumed office. n
— News Original —nTrump policies to ‘drag’ on economic growth, CBO predicts, offsetting megabill gainsnBy next year, CBO expects that balance to change some, as the effects of the megabill begin to outweigh the negative economic impact of tariffs and immigration policy, pushing GDP growth higher than previously predicted. n nThen, in the lead-up to the 2028 presidential election, the combination of the GOP policies are estimated to be mostly a wash for economic growth. n nIn 2027 and 2028, the GOP megabill’s boost to demand will wane as reduced immigration hits the labor force, acting “as a drag on growth,” the budget office predicts. Higher tariffs, however, will partially offset that hit, driving increased domestic production. n nThe result: As voters head to the polls in November 2028, the level of real GDP will be just 0.1 percent higher than predicted before Trump took office.