With unpredictable tariff policies from the United States and global economic instability, China’s leading economic planning body has emphasized the need for enhanced economic monitoring and early-warning systems. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is seeking research proposals to analyze the effects of U.S. tariffs and improve existing economic indicators in light of shifting global trade dynamics. Additionally, the commission intends to assess how non-tariff trade barriers imposed by other nations could affect China’s economy, as outlined in a notice released on its website in late June. China already maintains an extensive system for tracking economic conditions, involving institutions ranging from the central bank to the commerce ministry. However, the NDRC’s renewed initiative reflects a strategic effort to develop a more detailed and forward-looking approach as it prepares the nation’s development plan for 2026-2030. Shao Yu, director of the Shanghai Institution for Finance and Development, noted that the updated monitoring framework may require higher-frequency data and improved reflection of real-world economic conditions. He anticipates that these enhancements will help China better manage anticipated increases in economic volatility and global competition. According to Shao, while current systems focus on metrics like trade balances and financial market fluctuations, future frameworks may incorporate deeper assessments of supply-chain resilience, technological advancements, and monetary stability.
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China steps up economic monitoring, looking to head off worst-case scenarios
Amid erratic US tariff threats and with the world economy in flux, China’s top economic planner says that more economic monitoring and early-warning capabilities are needed.
The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is soliciting studies to assess the impacts of US tariffs and to refine China’s existing monitoring indicators “in the context of global economic and trade order restructuring”.
It also plans to evaluate how non-tariff barriers of various countries might impact China’s economy, according to a notice published on its website in late June.
From the central bank to the commerce ministry, China already employs a vast system to monitor its economic health. However, the NDRC’s fresh push signals the desire for a more nuanced and forward-looking approach as it helps draft the country’s 2026-2030 development blueprint.
“This might need to be of higher frequency and more capable of reflecting the real economy,” said Shao Yu, director of the Shanghai Institution for Finance and Development.
Shao expects that changes to the economic-monitoring system will help China better navigate the volatility and competition that he expects to intensify in the future.
“While existing systems might focus on indicators such as trade balances and financial market volatility, future systems will likely dive deeper into supply-chain security, technology, and monetary stability,” he said.