China’s economy maintained a steady pace of expansion during the third quarter of 2025, supported by strong export performance and sustained investment in industrial infrastructure, even as consumer spending remained subdued and the real estate sector continued to struggle. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, gross domestic product rose by 1.1 percent compared to the prior quarter, matching the growth rate seen in the second quarter. At this trajectory, annualized growth is projected to reach approximately 4.1 percent over the next year.
The data release coincided with the beginning of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee meeting, where leaders are expected to deliberate on the upcoming Five-Year Plan covering 2026 to 2030. Notably, the bureau revised downward its earlier estimate for the second quarter, now stating that output grew by 1 percent rather than 1.1 percent, which made the third-quarter figures appear slightly stronger in comparison.
Despite these macroeconomic indicators, household consumption has weakened. Retail sales of consumer goods increased by just 3 percent year-on-year in September, marking the weakest rise since November of the previous year. A prolonged downturn in the property market has significantly eroded household wealth, discouraging spending. In numerous cities, apartment prices have dropped as much as 40 percent from their peak in mid-2021, undermining both consumer confidence and the financial health of developers.
To stimulate demand, the central government has introduced subsidy programs for purchases of electric vehicles, smartphones, and home appliances—goods largely produced domestically. However, some local authorities, facing fiscal strain, have scaled back their contributions to these initiatives.
Industrial investment, particularly in new manufacturing facilities, has helped counterbalance sluggish domestic demand. Policies promoting import substitution and export-oriented production remain central to economic strategy. Over the past three months, China’s merchandise trade surplus expanded by 12.4 percent compared to the same period last year. The country is on track to surpass $1 trillion in trade surplus for the year, exceeding its previous record.
While exports to the United States have declined due to lingering tariff policies, shipments to emerging markets have surged, reflecting a strategic shift in trade partnerships. Analysts remain cautious about the reliability of official economic data, with some suggesting that growth figures may be overstated.
Looking ahead, policymakers may introduce additional measures to support household incomes and boost consumption, such as raising rural pension payments, which currently average around $20 monthly. Alternatively, the government could prioritize large-scale infrastructure projects—railways, highways, and hydroelectric facilities—particularly in western regions, where national financing can offset local budget constraints.
“The property downturn continues to pressure consumer activity, but further stimulus targeting spending is likely,” said Xu Sitao, chief China economist at Deloitte. Dan Wang, a China economist at Eurasia Group in Singapore, noted that Beijing retains substantial fiscal capacity to fund major development initiatives despite local governments’ reduced revenue from land sales.
— news from The New York Times
— News Original —
China’s Economy Held Steady in the Third Quarter, but Consumers Were More Cautious
Strong exports and continued investment in new factories offset faltering retail sales and a further erosion of China’s housing market as growth in the Chinese economy held steady over the summer.
During the third quarter of the year, from July through September, China’s economy expanded 1.1 percent over the previous quarter, maintaining roughly the same pace as during the spring, China’s National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement on Monday. If that pace continues, the economy will expand about 4.1 percent over the next 12 months.
Over the past four years, a plunging housing market has erased much of the savings of Chinese households, causing many to curtail spending. The central government has tried to offset this by providing subsidies for consumers to buy smartphones, electric cars, appliances and other goods that are made mainly in China. But some local governments, which bear part of the cost of the subsidies, are trimming their spending on these programs.
Apartment prices are down by as much as 40 percent in many cities from their peak in the summer of 2021, dealing a crippling blow to developers and builders. The contraction in real estate and construction, which once represented a quarter of China’s economy, continued during the third quarter.
Retail sales of consumer goods are still weakening. They were up only 3 percent in September from the same month last year, according to data released on Monday. That was the smallest increase since last November, when the increase was also 3 percent.
Until this past summer, investment in new factories had offset some of this weakness. The government has become concerned about manufacturing overcapacity, price wars and other signs of excessive competition.
Investment in exports, and policies to replace imports with goods made in China, continue to drive the economy. The country’s surplus in the trade of merchandise increased 12.4 percent in the past three months compared with the same period last year.
China’s trade surplus, the amount by which exports exceed imports, is on track to surge past $1 trillion this year, breaking its own record last year. While China’s exports to the United States have dipped because of President Trump’s tariffs, its exports to developing countries have soared.
The growth data announced on Monday was slightly better than many economists had expected because the National Bureau of Statistics revised its calculation of the preceding quarter lower. The bureau said economic output was 1 percent larger in the spring than during the winter, and not 1.1 percent larger, as it had announced in July.
In an upbeat statement, the statistics bureau portrayed the economy as essentially healthy. “The national economy demonstrated strong resilience and vitality” during the third quarter, it said.
By a measure the Chinese government prefers to highlight, the economy was 4.8 percent larger in the third quarter than in the same quarter last year, the agency said. Some analysts have questioned whether Chinese data overstates the economy’s performance.
The statistics bureau did not hold its customary news conference to discuss the report, possibly because the regularly scheduled release of the data coincided with the start of the annual gathering of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee. The committee, composed of 370 of the most powerful people in China, is expected to review the country’s Five Year Plan for policies on the economy and other issues from 2026 through 2030.
The Central Committee is expected to approve steps in the coming months to address the country’s economic weakness. Some economists expect the Chinese leadership to announce measures to help households and reinforce consumer spending, such as increasing pensions for rural seniors, who receive as little as $20 a month.
“The property slump is weighing on retail sales, but further consumption-boosting measures are in the cards,” said Xu Sitao, the chief China economist at Deloitte.
But other economists expect China’s leadership to reinforce the country’s longstanding emphasis on building rail lines, highways, bridges, hydroelectric dams and other government-led construction projects.
Many local governments cannot afford these projects because their land sales to developers, previously one of their largest sources of revenue, have withered during the real estate slump even as their upkeep costs are surging for recently built infrastructure. But China’s national government has considerable capacity to finance big projects and is likely to continue doing so, notably in western China, said Dan Wang, a China economist in the Singapore office of Eurasia Group, a global consulting firm.