Consumer sentiment in the United States has experienced a significant decline this month, driven by growing concerns about an impending recession. These fears are largely attributed to the administration’s unpredictable tariff policies. According to the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers, released recently, U.S. consumer sentiment dropped by 11% at the start of April compared to last month. This decline was observed across all demographics, including age, income, education, geographic region, and political affiliation. Joanne Hsu, director of the survey project, noted that sentiment has decreased by more than 30% since December 2024 due to fluctuating trade war developments throughout the year. The assessment indicates that overall consumer sentiment has fallen to its second-lowest level since the early 1950s. Consumers are reporting multiple warning signs that increase the risk of a recession, such as deteriorating expectations for business conditions, personal finances, incomes, inflation, and labor markets. The percentage of consumers expecting unemployment to rise in the coming year has increased for five consecutive months and is now more than double the November 2024 reading, reaching its highest point since 2009. Lindsay Owens, executive director of the Groundwork Collaborative, stated that the president’s trade policies have disrupted markets, affected retirement accounts, and halted shipping orders. There is potential for price spikes, shortages, and even a recession in the near future. While Goldman Sachs withdrew its recession forecast after the partial tariff pause, Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi expressed concern that even with some deals, significantly higher tariffs will weigh heavily on the U.S. and global economies, likely resulting in a recession.
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