The rise in inequality over recent decades has sparked significant interest among academics and the general public. This has led to the belief that worsening income distribution is a key factor behind the electoral support for populist political forces in recent years. Examples include Trump in the U.S., Le Pen in France, and Brexit supporters in the UK, who are seen as gaining backing from the working middle class in wealthy economies. However, new research suggests these political phenomena are less tied to personal income inequality and more linked to the economic stagnation of entire regions. The despair caused by the gradual economic decline of these areas has created a distinct geography of discontent in the U.S. and the EU. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose, a professor at the London School of Economics, highlighted in 2018 how political and academic circles overlooked the decline and subsequent discontent in affected regions. He argued that territorial disparities were underestimated, and the economic potential of regions left behind by globalization was overlooked. In 2022, Rodríguez-Pose and colleagues introduced the concept of the “regional development trap,” identifying regions unable to maintain economic dynamism in terms of income, productivity, and employment. This stagnation has fueled populist political movements, as seen in European elections between 2013 and 2022, where prolonged periods of stagnation correlated with higher votes for Eurosceptic parties. In the U.S., Rodríguez-Pose and his team analyzed the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, linking Trump’s success to economic stagnation in small towns and rural communities. This trend reflects the personal history of J.D. Vance, now Trump’s vice president, who chronicled the decline of the U.S. “Rust Belt” in a memoir later adapted into a film. Despite the economic recovery post-pandemic, Trump won the 2024 election, and far-right parties gained power in several EU countries, posing risks to democratic order. Addressing this widespread sense of stagnation amid an impending climate crisis is one of the greatest challenges of our time.
— new from The Conversation
