In a recent episode of the Journal of Business’s Elevating The Conversation podcast, Avista Corp.’s chief economist Grant Forsyth shared insights on the mid-year economic outlook. Here are the key takeaways from the discussion.
Firstly, it’s uncertain if the U.S. economy is in a recession. Evidence suggests a gradual economic slowdown, with weak first-quarter GDP figures. Tariffs and past central bank rate hikes have contributed to this trend.
Secondly, tariffs are negatively impacting the economy, but businesses can adapt if tariff levels stabilize around 10%. Uncertainty around fluctuating tariffs has caused businesses to delay decisions.
Thirdly, inflation has slowed but remains higher than expected. Energy prices have moderated, providing some relief. However, forecasts suggest inflation will remain above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target until at least 2027 due to ongoing tariff impacts.
Fourthly, healthcare jobs are crucial to employment growth, particularly in regions like Spokane and the Tri-Cities. Removing healthcare from the equation reveals stagnant or negative employment growth in other sectors.
Lastly, population growth is vital for business expansion in the Inland Northwest. With slowing in-migration rates, future economic growth may be constrained as the natural growth rate is minimal or negative in many areas.
— new from Spokane Journal of Business