France could soon see its fifth prime minister in under two years, as political instability converges with mounting economic risks and the potential for social unrest. A parliamentary stalemate threatens to deepen the crisis unless resolved swiftly. n nOn Monday afternoon, members of parliament will debate a no-confidence motion against current Prime Minister Francois Bayrou, who took office in December. His defeat, widely anticipated, may intensify the nation’s political and financial challenges and cast uncertainty over President Emmanuel Macron’s leadership. n nBayrou, 74, has proposed a stringent fiscal plan aiming to save approximately £40 billion, including the elimination of two national public holidays. While intended to stabilize public finances, the proposal has sparked public backlash. Economists and European officials warn that without urgent action, France—Europe’s second-largest economy—could face a debt crisis similar to Greece’s. n nThe prime minister initiated the confidence vote last month in an effort to strengthen his authority and push through the contentious reforms. However, resistance is growing. The Socialist Party is expected to align with the far-right National Rally to oppose the measure. Celine Thiebault-Martinez, a Socialist MP, criticized the budget for disproportionately affecting low-income and working families. Her party’s alternative proposal calls for half the savings and a longer timeline for debt repayment. n nShe dismissed warnings of international financial oversight as fear tactics, stating, “They wave the IMF flag, saying we’ll soon be under supervision like Greece once was, but those are false arguments; they’re made to scare.” However, fiscal data presents a sobering picture: France has not recorded a balanced budget since 1974. Its debt-to-GDP ratio ranks third in Europe, behind only Greece and Italy, and annual debt servicing now exceeds spending on defense or education. n nThe National Rally, gaining momentum in national polls, advocates for new legislative elections, confident of expanding their parliamentary presence. MP Gaetan Dussaussaye accused Macron’s administration of eight years of overregulation and economic stagnation. Yet the party has offered little detail on its own economic strategy, emphasizing only a need for systemic change and greater public control. n nIf Bayrou loses the vote, he will remain in a caretaker role while Macron considers next steps—options that include calling fresh elections, appointing another prime minister, or stepping down, though the latter remains unlikely per the president’s repeated statements. n nNicolas Gaudin, who runs a manufacturing firm supplying the automotive and aviation sectors in northern France, expressed concern over the lack of policy clarity. His business faces potential collapse by year-end without stable economic conditions. While he supports necessary reforms, he believes Bayrou’s approach undermines social values central to French identity. n n”Our clients are cutting maintenance and industrialization costs, which directly affects our orders,” Gaudin said. “We have no visibility. Back in June, we hoped for improvement in September, but we’re still in the dark.” n nWorkers at his facility echo a broader sentiment of political alienation. Alexandre Bocquet described the current system as broken, saying, “We don’t feel represented. On issues like wages and cost of living, we feel completely abandoned.” n nThis disillusionment has boosted support for Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, now seen as a leading contender in the 2027 presidential race, possibly even earlier. Many blame Macron for the deadlock, stemming from his June 2024 snap election that resulted in a fragmented legislature. n nA nationwide day of civil action is scheduled for next Wednesday, with hopes of widespread business closures and road blockades, though the extent of participation remains uncertain. n
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France on brink of economic and political crisis as PM looks set to lose confidence vote
France is facing the possibility of having its fifth prime minister in less than two years, an economic crisis and the threat of further civil unrest if a parliamentary deadlock isn’t resolved in the coming days. n nFrench MPs will debate a vote of no confidence in the country’s current prime minister, Francois Bayrou, on Monday afternoon. n nIf, as expected, he loses, it will deepen the country’s economic and political malaise and could even put the future of Emmanuel Macron’s presidency in doubt. n nMr Bayrou, a 74-year-old political veteran only in office since December, has proposed a drastic budget making around £40bn in savings, including cutting two of the country’s annual public holidays. n nThis has been met by considerable opposition and even anger among the French public, even though Mr Bayrou and economists in Europe have warned that the EU’s second-largest economy faces a Greek-style debt crisis if it doesn’t act urgently. n nMr Bayrou called the unexpected confidence vote last month, hoping to boost his legitimacy and get his highly controversial economic package passed. n nThe Socialist Party is expected to join forces with its natural enemies in the far-right National Rally to oppose the prime minister. n nCeline Thiebault-Martinez, a Socialist Party MP, said Mr Bayrou’s budget “once again penalises the most vulnerable, working-class families and ordinary workers”. n nHer party’s alternative budget would make half the savings Mr Bayrou wants and would pay back the huge state debt over a longer period. n nMs Thiebault-Martinez doesn’t believe they can be persuaded to back the prime minister on Monday. n n”They wave the IMF flag, saying we’ll soon be under supervision like Greece once was, but those are false arguments; they’re made to scare.” n nBut the figures don’t support her opinion. n nFrance hasn’t balanced a budget since 1974. Its debt to GDP ratio is now the third highest in Europe, only better than Greece and Italy, and the country spends more servicing its debt every year than it does on either defence or education. n nNational Rally, the far-right party of Marine Le Pen rising in national polls, favours holding fresh parliamentary elections, confident they will increase their share of MPs in the Assembly, putting them into a position of greater power. n nThey see Monday’s vote as a chance to punish Mr Macron. n nNational Rally MP Gaetan Dussaussaye said “for eight years now [since Mr Macron was elected] it’s always been the same recipe: More rules, more taxes, preventing the French economy from working and moving forward”. n nBut the far-right party is vague when asked what its alternative plan to reform the country’s economy would be. n n”What we want is a complete change in how the economy is managed in France. That means giving the power back to the French people to decide,” he said. n nAssuming Mr Bayrou loses Monday’s vote and the government falls, he will stay in office temporarily while the president works out what to do next. n nMr Macron will be faced with only difficult choices; call new elections to try to re-establish a majority, appoint yet another new prime minister in the hope they can succeed where the previous four have failed, or even stand down himself, something he has repeatedly ruled out despite growing calls for him to go. n nNicolas Gaudin, owner of CMO, a company making parts for the car and aviation industry, based in National Rally’s northern France heartland, said he is torn. n nHe wants – and needs – some economic certainty and without immediate reforms, his company could go bust by the end of the year, but for him, Mr Bayrou’s policies undermine the social considerations that “make France a wonderful country”. n nBe the first to get Breaking News n nInstall the Sky News app for free n nHe said: “Our clients, major companies in the aeronautics and automotive industries, are cutting their maintenance and industrialisation costs and that directly impacts our requests and orders. n n”We have no visibility at the moment. Back in June, we told ourselves that things would pick up in September, but here we are in September, and we still don’t have any more information.” n nFor his small workforce on the factory floor, it’s more straightforward – they feel long abandoned by the traditional political classes. n nAlexandre Bocquet said the whole political system “needs redoing from scratch” n n”We don’t feel represented. When it comes to purchasing power or work, we feel completely abandoned,” he adds. n nRead more on Sky News: n nCable snapped in deadly funicular crash n nThe saint of the internet age n nDonatella Versace among Armani mourners n nIt’s this sentiment that has made Le Pen’s National Rally party the favourite to win the presidency at the next elections in 2027, if not sooner. n nMany hold Mr Macron responsible for the crisis after he called snap elections in June 2024 which led to a hung parliament and a deeply fractured lower chamber unable to agree on much. n nA day of civil action has been called for next Wednesday. n nIt’s unclear how widespread it will be, but organisers are hoping businesses will shut down and major roads blocked.