Global Economic Outlook: Inflation, Trade, and Interest Rate Decisions for Week of 21-25 July 2025

The upcoming week from 21 to 25 July 2025 will feature significant global economic data releases that traders and investors are closely monitoring, particularly focusing on inflation trends, trade balances, and interest rate decisions.

Below is a summary of key economic events and data releases scheduled for the week (in UCT+7 time zone):

Monday: China will announce its Loan Prime Rate for both 1-year and 5-year terms. The previous rates of 3.0% and 3.5% respectively are expected to remain unchanged.

Tuesday: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will deliver a speech that could provide insights into the U.S. monetary policy outlook.

Wednesday: Thailand will release its June trade balance figures, with expectations of a slight increase from $1.12 billion to $1.2 billion. Export growth is forecast at 19.55%, while import growth is expected at 18.15%.

Japan’s Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Uchida will speak, potentially offering clues about Japan’s monetary policy direction.

Euro Area: ECB President Christine Lagarde will address economic conditions, and consumer confidence data for July will be released, with expectations of a slight improvement from -15.3 to -14.5.

United States: Several key housing market indicators will be released, including existing home sales for June, which are forecast at 4 million units.

Thursday: Japan will release flash PMI data for manufacturing, services, and composite indices, with slight increases expected across the board.

Euro Area: The European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision, with rates expected to remain at 2.15%. A press conference will follow.

United Kingdom: S&P Global will release flash PMI data for manufacturing, services, and composite indices, with mixed expectations.

United States: Important economic indicators will include new home sales for June, expected at 0.65 million units, and durable goods orders data.

Friday: Japan will report Tokyo Core CPI and CPI figures for July.

Euro Area: Consumer inflation expectations for June will be released.

United Kingdom: Retail sales data for June will be published, with expectations of a 1.2% month-over-month increase.

United States: Durable goods orders data for June will be released, with expectations of a significant decline of -11% month-over-month.

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