The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cautioned that it is too early to assume the global economy has escaped the negative effects of recent U.S. tariff policies. Despite some signs of resilience, the outlook for worldwide economic expansion remains subdued. The IMF noted that while the immediate fallout from renewed trade tensions between the United States and China has not triggered a sharp downturn, risks persist. Global growth forecasts were adjusted slightly upward due to a more favorable trade environment than previously feared, but the overall trajectory remains fragile. The U.S. economy, in particular, remains exposed to potential shocks from new tariffs, which could disrupt supply chains and dampen consumer demand. Additionally, tighter immigration policies may worsen labor shortages, further constraining economic activity. The IMF emphasized that uncertainty continues to weigh on business investment and consumer confidence, making sustained recovery challenging without clearer policy direction.
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Global Growth Remains Sluggish as Tariff Threats Loom The New York Times‘Premature’ to conclude that Trump’s tariffs haven’t hit the global economy, the IMF says CNNWorld economy resilient amid Trump tariffs but outlook looks ‘dim’, says IMF The GuardianIMF lifts growth outlook on more benign tariffs as revived US-China trade war looms ReutersU.S. economy still vulnerable to tariff shocks, IMF says, and labor shortages tied to immigration crackdown could also sting MarketWatch