Following a 43-day government shutdown—the longest in U.S. history—federal statistical agencies are resuming operations and working to release delayed economic reports. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Census Bureau are now catching up on data collection and publication. Experts anticipate that some reports, such as the September jobs data, will be released within days, as surveys were largely completed before the shutdown. Goldman Sachs analysts predict the September employment report could be published on November 18 or 19, with expectations of 50,000 jobs added, up from 22,000 in August. The Producer Price Index for September, which measures wholesale inflation, is also expected soon, with forecasts indicating a 0.3% monthly rise after an 0.1% drop in August. However, data dependent on October collection efforts, such as retail sales and the Consumer Price Index, face greater uncertainty. Nancy Vanden Houten of Oxford Economics noted that household surveys for unemployment estimates may be particularly affected due to missed fieldwork. There is growing concern that some October indicators, including inflation and employment, might never be published—an unprecedented gap in data continuity since records began in 1913. The White House has acknowledged this possibility, raising alarms among investors and policymakers who rely on timely economic signals to guide decisions.
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Shutdown’s Over—Here’s When the Economic Data Returns
The government ‘s data dark age is coming to an end, but it might take some time for the government ‘s statistical agencies to catch up to their regular schedule. n nWashington is getting back to work after having been shut for a record 43 days, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Census Bureau, and other agencies can now start to play catch-up. Based on past government shutdowns, experts believe that certain long-delayed economic reports will be released in a matter of days. Others may take weeks to compile, and some may never be released at all. n nInvestors, policymakers, and business leaders are especially anxious to see data on inflation and the job market, since recent reports have flashed some warning signs. The most recent government reports showed the job market slowing down and inflation heating up. That poses a dilemma for officials at the Federal Reserve who must decide whether to lower borrowing costs to boost hiring or keep rates higher to fight inflation. n n”There is a lot of uncertainty about when the data flow will get underway, particularly given the duration of the shutdown,” Nancy Vanden Houten, lead economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a commentary. “Based on past shutdowns, we anticipate data originally scheduled for release in the first half of October—primarily data covering September—will be released fairly quickly. However, the timetable will vary depending on the normal data collection process for each indicator.” n nAs of Thursday afternoon, the BLS and other agencies had yet to release revised schedules. Here ‘s what economists expect: n nSeptember Job Market n nEconomists say the Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its monthly report on job creation for September soon, as the bureau has already conducted the surveys used to gather the data. The report was originally scheduled for release on Oct. 3, two days after the shutdown began. Researchers at Goldman Sachs expect it to come out at some point next week, on Nov. 18 or Nov. 19. n nForecasters expected U.S. employers to have added 50,000 jobs for the month, according to a survey of economists by Bloomberg, up from 22,000 in August. n nSeptember Wholesale Prices n nThe Producer Price Index report, originally scheduled for Oct. 16, may also come out fairly quickly, because the data has already been collected, Vanden Houten wrote. The consensus forecast calls for producer prices to have climbed 0.3% in September after declining 0.1% in August. n nSeptember Retail Sales n nData on September ‘s retail sales, reported by the Census Bureau, will likely be delayed for longer, Vanden Houten wrote, since that data collection would have continued into October, when the government was shut down. That monthly report was also scheduled for Oct. 16. The median forecast called for sales to rise 0.4% over the month, slower than the 0.6% increase in August. n nOctober Jobs n nThe October jobs report may be problematic, since the government was closed when the BLS normally collects data. It ‘s possible the bureau could release reports for October and November together in December, Vanden Houten wrote. The jobs report was supposed to come out Nov. 7. n nEconomists at Goldman Sachs expect the BLS should be able to report October payrolls, which are based on surveys of employers. However, the survey that estimates the unemployment rate, which is sent out to households, will be more of a challenge. n n”The inability to conduct surveys will be especially problematic for the household employment survey,” Vanden Houten wrote. n nOctober Inflation n nWhether or not the Consumer Price Index for October will ever be released is an open question. The data “cannot be estimated in the traditional way for October,” Goldman economists wrote. n n”We can ‘t completely rule out the possibility that some October data is never released,” Vanden Houten wrote. n nThe Consumer Price Index was scheduled for release Thursday, and forecasters expected it to show prices rose 3.1% over the year, the same annual rate increase as September, according to a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires. n nThe White House has raised the possibility that October ‘s CPI and jobs reports will likely never be released, an unprecedented event in the history of the BLS going back to 1913. n nNovember Reports