J.P. Morgan’s chief economist, Bruce Kasman, has raised concerns about a 40% chance of a U.S. recession this year due to potential disruptions from Trump’s policies. The risk could rise to 50% or higher if reciprocal tariffs are imposed. Kasman warns that undermining trust in U.S. governance could damage its standing as an investment destination. The administration’s style and decisions, such as cutting government agencies and disbanding advisory committees, introduce uncertainties into U.S. policy. These actions threaten the ‘exorbitant privilege’ the U.S. enjoys in global markets, which allows it to finance deficits at lower costs. — news from Reuters