The Perryman Group’s latest long-term forecast suggests that Texas is well positioned for sustained economic expansion over the next three decades, despite facing short-term headwinds from national and global economic slowdowns. While the state has outperformed many others in recent years, current trade tensions, fluctuating oil prices, and restrictive immigration policies pose risks to continued momentum. Nevertheless, demographic advantages and strong in-migration trends support a positive outlook.
Texas continues to lead the nation in job creation, with employment growth significantly outpacing the national average. The state maintains a lower unemployment rate and benefits from a younger population base, which will bolster workforce availability in the coming years. However, experts caution that overly restrictive immigration rules could hinder labor supply and slow economic gains, calling for sensible reforms to support long-term development.
One of the state’s standout strengths is its ability to attract major corporate investments. For over a decade, Texas has ranked first in the U.S. for new business locations, expansions, and capital inflows across diverse sectors. Key growth areas include financial services, life sciences, artificial intelligence, data centers, energy diversification, and advanced manufacturing. To fully capitalize on these opportunities, the report emphasizes the need for improvements in education, power infrastructure, water systems, and transportation networks.
Exports remain a major driver of economic activity, with Texas leading all states in export volume. However, recent tariff increases and trade policy uncertainties have introduced volatility. Meanwhile, the energy sector faces pressure from low oil prices, driven by weak global demand and increased production from OPEC+ nations. These conditions are expected to be temporary, with stronger market fundamentals anticipated in the long run.
Projections indicate that Texas’s real gross product will grow at an annual rate of 3.27%, outpacing the national average. Wage and salary employment is expected to increase by nearly 8.9 million jobs over the next 30 years—an average of 1.57% per year. While short-term fluctuations are inevitable, the overall trajectory points toward moderate but consistent expansion. Enhanced clarity in trade regulations and streamlined legal immigration processes could further boost performance.
Dr. M. Ray Perryman, president and CEO of The Perryman Group, concluded that although business cycles will continue to bring periodic challenges, the underlying fundamentals of the Texas economy remain strong, positioning it as a national leader in future growth.
— news from The Henderson News
— News Original —
The Economist: The Long-Term Texas Economic Forecast
Although Texas has been faring somewhat better than most areas, the state is not immune to the national and global economic slowdown. Current challenges are affecting key industries and the pace of hiring, but expansion is expected over a long-term horizon. The Perryman Group’s latest projections indicate that the Texas economy is well positioned to return to more significant growth in the coming decades. n nDespite some recent sluggishness, Texas has been experiencing employment gains at a pace significantly faster than the nation, and the state’s unemployment rate remains somewhat lower. Growth will be boosted by the younger population and in-migration from other states and nations and the resulting more favorable position in the future workforce. However, restrictive immigration policy has the potential to slow gains, and sensible reform is needed. n nAnother positive pattern is that Texas has attracted far more major corporate locations, expansions, and significant investments than any other state every year for well over a decade. With this increased activity across a spectrum of traditional and emerging industries, the economy is poised to reap benefits for many years. n nTexas has strategic advantages and momentum in several key growth segments, including financial services, life sciences, AI and data centers, diverse energy sources, and advanced manufacturing. These opportunities can only be optimized by meeting essential requirements in education (especially), power, water, and infrastructure. A growing population and economy will inevitably pose ongoing capacity challenges. n nExports are a source of growth in business activity, and Texas is the nation’s leading export state by a wide margin, though current trade issues and policies such as tariff increases have the potential to slow the pace of gains. In addition, the energy sector is dealing with relatively low oil prices due to sluggish demand and higher production in other areas (including OPEC+). These factors are likely to be transitory, with improved prospects anticipated in the decades to come. n nThe Perryman Group’s current long-term projections for Texas indicate economic growth at a somewhat faster pace than that of the US as a whole. Real gross product is forecast to expand at a 3.27% annual pace, and wage and salary employment is projected to grow by nearly 8.9 million net new positions, an increase of 1.57% per year over the next three decades. n nWhile there remains the short-term potential for further slowing in light of recent policy actions and associated uncertainty, long-term expectations continue to point toward moderate expansion. Performance could be further enhanced through greater clarity in trade policy and improvement in processes for responsible legal immigration. On balance, though business fluctuations are unavoidable, the US economy is well positioned for long-term expansion, with Texas likely to continue to be a growth leader. Stay safe! n nDr. M. Ray Perryman is President and Chief Executive Officer of The Perryman Group (www.perrymangroup.com), which has served the needs of over 3,000 clients over the past four decades.