Robert Fogel: Rewriting Economic History Through Quantitative Analysis

Born during the era of the Great Depression’s haunting memories in America, Robert Fogel grew up in a time when fears of economic collapse loomed large after World War II. His engagement with economics was not merely academic but driven by a desire to understand the dynamics of power, stagnation, and prosperity. What truly set him apart was not just his passion for economics, but his methodical approach to it.

Initially influenced by socialist ideas, Fogel’s academic journey, particularly under mentors like Simon Kuznets and George Stigler, led him to adopt a rigorous quantitative methodology, free from ideological biases. In his view, intuition and emotion had no place in understanding economics; only what could be measured and analyzed was worth basing conclusions on.

Fogel’s most significant contributions came through his unconventional methodology, “cliometrics,” which combined economic and mathematical tools with historical study. This unprecedented approach moved history out of the realm of emotional narratives and into causal analysis. Using this method, Fogel conducted a comprehensive review of key moments in American economic history.

In one famous study, he examined the impact of railroads on the 19th-century economy, concluding that their absence would not have significantly altered American economic growth, as their actual contribution to national output was only around 2.7%. This debunked the myth of the “great men” credited with building America.

Fogel later tackled the sensitive topic of slavery. Collaborating with Stanley Engerman, he used economic data to challenge the belief that slavery was an inefficient and declining system. Their research concluded that, despite its brutality, slavery was an efficient and profitable system within the market economy of the time. This was not a defense of slavery but an objective description of a system rooted in exploitation, which did not collapse on its own but ended due to political decisions.

This perspective sparked intense criticism, especially from liberal academic circles. However, Fogel was not discussing the “justice” of the system but its economic efficiency, thereby dismantling the false link between economics and ethics.

In his later years, Fogel turned to a deeper question: What truly drives economic growth? His answer came from an unexpected source: health and nutrition. In his Nobel Prize-winning research, he demonstrated that over half of Britain’s economic growth between 1790 and 1980 could be attributed to improved nutrition, healthcare, and living conditions. This redefined growth as not just factories and profits, but the biological capacity of humans to produce.

Fogel also warned that the pressures of contemporary capitalism could, in some ways, be harsher than previous systems of slavery. His vision aligned with economist Friedrich Hayek’s emphasis on health in economics, advocating for investment in human health as the most rewarding long-term strategy. His ideas were cited during debates on the U.S. “Obamacare” healthcare policy, emphasizing that such policies slow deficits and accelerate growth, albeit over the long term.
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