Russia’s war machine has become a central component of its economic framework, with the defense sector expected to continue growing even after the conflict in Ukraine concludes, according to a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
The report, published on Thursday, notes that the end of hostilities will not necessarily result in a significant reduction in military spending. Despite Western sanctions and economic pressures, Russia’s economy remains resilient enough to support military operations for several more years.
Defense expenditures are projected to reach 6.3% of GDP in 2025, potentially rising further even as economic indicators suggest a slowdown or possible recession. Analysts at CSIS argue that the Russian economy remains viable through at least 2027, allowing the Kremlin to sustain its war of attrition.
The report also highlights that Russia may be preparing for future confrontations, particularly with NATO, using the current conflict to modernize its military and assess Western responses. In addition to conventional warfare, Moscow has intensified hybrid tactics such as cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and infrastructure strikes.
Despite economic contractions in manufacturing and employment, Russia has managed to navigate many economic restrictions. It has maintained high energy revenues, balanced its budget, and increased domestic weapons production, contributing to continued economic growth.
The militarization of the economy has created a broad network of beneficiaries, from political elites to ordinary workers, making a significant reduction in military activity unlikely. Even if a ceasefire is reached, analysts suggest that Russia could rebuild and expand its armed forces over the next decade.
Russia’s geopolitical stance remains firm, with the report noting that Moscow is adapting quickly and growing more confident in its ability to act without significant Western opposition.
— news from Business Insider