The Spanish government has begun quantifying the economic cost of the new trade conflict with the United States. Carlos Cuerpo, Minister of Economy, Trade, and Business, has projected that the tariff dispute could reduce GDP growth by 0.1 percentage points in 2025. While the impact appears limited, the situation remains fluid, with the final outcome dependent on whether an agreement is reached before August 1.
During his appearance in Congress, Cuerpo addressed the implications of the tariff conflict initiated by the U.S. and its effects on Spain’s economy. According to his estimates, if no agreement is reached, the projected growth for 2025 will be reduced by 0.1 percentage points. Although this may seem minor, in an economy where every tenth of a percentage matters, this could be significant.
Spain is not among the European countries most exposed to the U.S. market. Directly affected exports amount to approximately €15 billion, rising to €22.7 billion when indirect effects are considered. However, the minister clarified that, so far, foreign trade data has not shown any significant changes in export patterns or merchandise flows.
The core of the dispute centers on the 30% “reciprocal tariff” the U.S. could impose on European Union products if no agreement is reached by August. In response, the EU is preparing a coordinated reaction, including mirror measures such as tariffs on U.S. goods and support for strategic sectors in Europe.
The Spanish government has already begun drafting a contingency plan focusing on two areas: financing lines to maintain liquidity for affected businesses and personalized support to help them navigate the new trade environment. U.S.-based companies do not plan to withdraw from Spain, but they are seeking assistance to diversify their customer base and markets.
Although Spain is not the EU’s largest exporter to the U.S., this trade conflict arrives at a delicate time for many businesses still recovering from post-pandemic logistical and demand challenges. Spanish foreign trade had shown signs of recovery, and a new tariff front could slow this momentum, particularly in sectors such as agri-food and machinery.
Market reactions suggest that the main risk is not the direct volume affected, but rather the uncertainty: how long will the tension last? Which sectors will be most impacted? And most importantly, how will this affect smaller businesses that may lack the resilience to withstand a tariff war? Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) could be the most vulnerable if costs rise or shipments slow.
Additionally, the international context complicates the situation further: while Europe and the U.S. engage in a commercial chess match, China and other Asian giants are watching closely and may seize any opportunity left by European exporters in the U.S. market. In this scenario, Spain must not only withstand the pressure but also adapt and innovate.
— news from Benzinga España