President Trump’s efforts to reframe the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act have done little to counter growing concerns about the nation’s economic direction. Despite attempts to rebrand the legislation as favorable to working families, underlying indicators point to deteriorating public confidence and worsening fundamentals.\n\nWhy it matters: Trump risks being caught in a damaging cycle of negative sentiment and weakening data — a pattern previously seen during President Biden’s tenure. However, this time, structural weaknesses are more pronounced, and the centerpiece of his legislative agenda is proving deeply unpopular. Some GOP members worry that inflation could severely impact Republican prospects in the 2026 midterms, leaving the administration with limited time to shift public perception on the economy.\n\nFor a leader whose political strength has long rested on claims of economic stewardship, declining approval on financial issues presents a serious threat. Current polling shows Trump’s rating on inflation and cost of living at -24, approaching the lows Biden faced during the 2022–23 price surge, according to G. Elliott Morris’s analysis. His broader economic favorability stands at -13.\n\nA recent Economist/YouGov survey found that 52% of U.S. adults believe the economy is deteriorating, compared to just 24% who see improvement, with 20% viewing it as unchanged.\n\nZoom in: The One Big, Beautiful Bill Act — which extended 2017 tax reductions while cutting Medicaid and other social programs — ranks among the least favored major legislative measures in recent years. Internal briefings reveal campaign officials urging Republicans to refer to it as the “Working Families Tax Cut Bill” in an effort to soften its image.\n\nCritics, including Democrats, argue that no rebranding can hide the bill’s regressive impact. Data from the Congressional Budget Office indicates that the bottom 25% of earners lose financially, while the wealthiest benefit most.\n\nThe broader picture reflects this discontent. Inflation is rising as ongoing trade conflicts continue to disrupt global supply chains, with experts warning of potential drug shortages and a volatile holiday shopping period. The labor market is cooling: layoffs are increasing, and for the first time since April 2021, the number of unemployed individuals exceeds available positions.\n\nHousing remains under pressure due to elevated interest rates and stagnant inventory. Manufacturing, expected to gain from tariff policies, has contracted for six consecutive months and is now shedding workers.\n\nOn the other side, administration officials insist the economy remains robust, citing consumer spending, corporate investment, and a strong stock market. They attribute negative sentiment to media bias.\n\nAn independent assessment estimates the average American will receive a $3,752 federal tax reduction in 2026 under the new law — though this compares to a hypothetical scenario without the bill, not current tax levels.\n\nThe White House highlights provisions like tax-free tips, $1,000 “Trump accounts” for newborns, and other measures aimed at low- and middle-income households as evidence of broad-based benefits.\n\nWhile Wall Street performance diverges from public sentiment — the market has risen over 8% since Trump resumed office, benefiting the 62% of Americans who own stocks — the gap between perception and reality is widening.\n\nWhite House spokesperson Kush Desai stated, “President Trump’s trade agreements have opened unparalleled market access for U.S. exports across economies totaling $32 trillion and serving 1.2 billion people.” He added that combined with deregulation and historic tax reductions for working Americans, these policies provide certainty that better days lie ahead.\n\nBetween the lines: With the economic package already enacted, options for immediate corrective action are limited. Potential moves include pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates or distributing tariff rebate checks to select citizens.\n\nThis may shift the focus toward messaging and advertising, with billions expected to be spent on political campaigns ahead of the midterms. If so, Trump could face the same challenge Biden did: convincing voters of economic strength when their personal experiences suggest otherwise.\n— news from Axios\n\n— News Original —\nTrump’s economic doom loop poses new danger for Republicans\nPresident Trump ‘s attempt to rebrand the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act can ‘t mask a grim reality: His economic approval is collapsing, and the data underneath is only getting worse. n nWhy it matters: Trump is in danger of getting trapped in the same “vibecession” dynamic that doomed President Biden — only this time, the structural signals are flashing red and Trump ‘s signature legislation is toxic. n nSome Republicans already fear inflation could cost them dearly in the 2026 midterms, warning Trump has only a few months to reset his trajectory on voters ‘ most important issue. n nFor a president whose credibility on the economy has always been his strongest asset, the prospect of the bottom falling out is uniquely dangerous. n nState of play: Trump ‘s approval rating on inflation and cost of living currently sits at -24, nearing Biden ‘s lows during the peak of the 2022–23 price surge, according to averages by pollster G. Elliott Morris. n nTrump ‘s favorability on jobs and the economy overall is better, but still underwater at -13. n n52% of U.S. adults say the economy is “getting worse,” while only 24% say it ‘s getting better and 20% say it ‘s about the same, according to The Economist/YouGov polling. n nZoom in: Poll after poll shows Trump ‘s Big, Beautiful Bill Act — which extended his 2017 tax cuts while slashing Medicaid and other safety net programs — is the most unpopular major piece of legislation in years. n nTrump campaign officials acknowledged the PR crisis in a closed-door briefing on Capitol Hill this week, where they urged Republicans to refer to it as the “Working Families Tax Cut Bill.” n nDemocrats say no amount of rebranding can disguise the reality: The poorest 25% of households lose money under the law while the richest reap the benefits, according to the Congressional Budget Office. n nThe big picture: The bleak voter sentiment matches increasingly bleak fundamentals. n nInflation is creeping higher as Trump ‘s trade war continues to reorder the global economy, with some analysts predicting drug shortages and an uncertain holiday season. n nThe labor market is softening: Layoffs are rising, and the number of unemployed workers now exceeds job openings for the first time since April 2021. n nThe housing market is on shaky footing, with interest rates relatively high and supply stagnant. n nManufacturing was supposed to be the biggest beneficiary of Trump ‘s tariffs. Instead, economic activity has shrunk for six months running and now the sector is shedding jobs. n nThe other side: Trump officials maintain the economy is fundamentally strong — pointing to consumer spending, corporate investment and the booming stock market — and blame media coverage for skewing perceptions. n nA nonpartisan analysis found the average American will receive a $3,752 federal tax cut in 2026 under the new law — though that ‘s compared to a world without the bill, not today ‘s tax rates. n nThe White House is also touting no tax on tips, $1,000 “Trump accounts” for newborns and other worker-friendly provisions as proof the legislation helps ordinary households. n nWall Street is not the economy, but the disconnect is stark: Even as Trump ‘s poll numbers lag, the market is up more than 8% since he took office — a huge boost for the 62% of Americans who say they own stocks. n nWhat they ‘re saying: “President Trump ‘s trade deals have unlocked unprecedented market access for American exports to economies that in total are worth over $32 trillion with 1.2 billion people,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement. n n”As these unprecedented trade deals and the Administration ‘s pro-growth domestic agenda of deregulation and historic working-class tax cuts take effect, American businesses and families alike have the certainty that the best is yet to come.” n nBetween the lines: With his economic agenda already through Congress, Trump has few levers left to pull — beyond pressuring the Federal Reserve to cut rates or a possible tariff rebate check to some Americans. n nThat could leave the battle over economic perception to messaging and marketing, with billions of dollars in political ad spending expected before the midterms. n nIf that ‘s the case, Trump may wind up learning Biden ‘s hard lesson: You can ‘t convince voters the economy is strong when their lived experience tells them it ‘s weak.
