A comprehensive analysis by The National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR) examines the transformation of economic ties between the United States and China from 2018 to 2023, highlighting a shift from market-based competition to a broader geopolitical contest. During this period, bilateral relations underwent significant changes driven by trade tensions, technological rivalry, and national security concerns.
The report outlines how policies introduced during this timeframe, including tariffs, export controls, and investment restrictions, reflected growing strategic mistrust. What began as a trade dispute evolved into a multifaceted rivalry encompassing supply chain resilience, semiconductor dominance, and digital infrastructure competition.
Economic interdependence, once seen as a stabilizing force, is now increasingly viewed through the lens of vulnerability. Both nations have pursued measures to reduce reliance on each other in critical sectors, leading to partial decoupling in areas such as advanced technology and defense-related industries.
The study emphasizes that while complete economic separation remains unlikely, the era of unfettered globalization between the two powers has ended. Instead, a new paradigm of “selective engagement” has emerged, where cooperation persists in select areas like climate change and public health, while competition intensifies in strategic domains.
This reconfiguration has prompted businesses and policymakers to reassess global supply chains, with many companies diversifying production bases to mitigate risks associated with overdependence on either economy.
The NBR analysis concludes that the evolving relationship will continue to shape global economic governance, trade norms, and innovation trajectories in the coming decade.
— news from The National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR)
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The Changing Character of U.S.-China Economic Relations: From Competition to Geopolitical Rivalry, 2018–23 The National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR)