Consumer spending in the U.S. increased by 0.3% in September, driven by higher outlays on gasoline, housing, healthcare, financial services, insurance, and food services. Disposable personal income also rose by 0.3%, supported by stronger employee compensation and returns from assets such as stock dividends and rental income. The personal savings rate held steady at 4.7%, matching August’s level and marking the lowest point since December 2024. On a year-over-year basis, inflation-adjusted consumer spending grew 2.1%, while income rose 1.9%.
The headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index climbed 2.8% compared to the same month last year, up from 2.7% in August. Excluding food and energy, the core PCE index also rose 2.8% year-over-year, a slight decrease from the previous month’s 2.9%.
Private sector employment contracted by 32,000 jobs in November, according to ADP, reversing a revised gain of 47,000 in October. This marked the fourth decline in six months. The average monthly job growth in 2025 stands at 52,000, significantly below the 141,000 seen during the same period in 2024. Job losses were concentrated in manufacturing (down 18,000), construction (down 9,000), and sectors including information, finance, and professional services. Gains occurred in natural resources and mining (up 8,000), trade, transportation, utilities, education, health services, and leisure and hospitality. Small businesses accounted for all job losses, shedding 120,000 positions, while mid-sized and large firms added 51,000 and 39,000 jobs respectively.
Layoff announcements totaled over 71,000 in November, per Challenger, Gray & Christmas, a 53% drop from October but 24% higher than the prior year. Year-to-date layoffs have reached nearly 1.2 million, a 54% increase from the same period in 2024. Industries with the most cuts included telecommunications, technology, food distribution, retail, media, and non-profits.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI® declined 0.5 points to 48.2 in November, marking nine consecutive months of contraction. New orders, employment, and backlogs shrank faster, though production expanded. Exports and inventories contracted more slowly. Customer inventories were again considered too low, and supplier deliveries accelerated, indicating slack in supply chains. Only four industries reported growth, while 11, including chemicals, saw declines.
Globally, manufacturing momentum weakened, with the JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI® falling 0.4 points to 50.5—the lowest in four months. Output and new orders improved, but employment and inventories contracted. New export orders have now declined for eight straight months.
Light vehicle sales rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 15.6 million units in November, though this represented a 5.5% year-over-year decline. Both car and light truck sales fell, down 18.4% and 2.7% respectively. Demand earlier in the year had been boosted by expectations of expiring EV tax credits and potential tariff-related price hikes.
Factory orders rose 0.2% in September, led by demand for primary and fabricated metals, electrical equipment, computers, electronics, and transportation gear. A drop in nondefense aircraft orders was offset by a surge in defense aircraft purchases. Orders for core business goods (nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft) increased 0.9%, matching August’s rise. Unfilled orders grew 0.7%, continuing a trend from the prior month. Shipments and inventories remained flat, with the inventories-to-shipments ratio unchanged at 1.56.
The ISM Services PMI® edged up to 52.6 in November, indicating continued expansion. Growth was driven by slower contractions in order backlogs, imports, new export orders, and employment, along with a shift from contraction to growth in inventories. Business activity expanded slightly faster. Inventory levels were seen as too high, and supplier deliveries slowed further. Prices continued to rise, though at a reduced pace.
Industrial production rose 0.1% in September after a downwardly revised 0.3% drop in August. Gains were driven by utility output, while mining and manufacturing were flat. Within manufacturing, metals, electrical equipment, and aerospace saw the largest percentage increases, while wood products and motor vehicles & parts declined. Year-over-year, industrial output was up 1.6%. Capacity utilization held steady at 75.9%, slightly above last year’s 75.7%.
Import prices were unchanged in September after a small August gain. Lower fuel import prices offset increases in non-fuel categories. Compared to a year ago, import prices were up 0.3%. Export prices were flat month-over-month but 3.7% higher annually.
Chemical railcar loadings dropped to 29,583 for the week ending November 29, influenced by the Thanksgiving holiday. Loadings were down 0.1% year-over-year (13-week moving average), the first negative comparison in nearly two years. Year-to-date, loadings were up 1.3%.
The chemical industry remained in contraction, with declines in new orders, production, employment, inventories, backlogs, exports, and imports. One respondent cited tariffs and economic uncertainty as dampening demand for construction-related adhesives and sealants. Customer inventories were deemed too low, and supplier deliveries improved, signaling distribution slack.
Chemical production rose 0.6% in September after two months of decline. Gains were seen in agricultural chemicals, consumer products, coatings, synthetic rubber, and manufactured fibers. These were partially offset by drops in plastic resins, organic and inorganic chemicals, and specialty chemicals. Year-over-year, output was up 1.4%. Capacity utilization rose to 80.2%, the highest since December of the previous year.
Chemical exports fell 1.0% in August, with declines in agricultural and consumer chemicals outweighing gains in basic and specialty segments. Imports dropped 7.0%, led by sharp falls in consumer chemicals (-16.2%), specialty chemicals (-13.9%), and basic chemicals (-3.6%). Exports and imports were down 9.1% and 10.2% respectively compared to a year earlier. The trade surplus widened from $2.4 billion to $3.0 billion due to relatively stronger export performance.
Chemical import prices declined 0.3% in August for the second consecutive month, while export prices fell 0.4%. Year-over-year, import prices were down 2.7%, while export prices were up 1.5%.
Chemical shipments decreased 0.2% to $57.6 billion in September after being flat in August. Agricultural chemical shipments fell 1.4%, coatings & adhesives dropped 0.3%, and other chemicals declined 0.1%. Inventories were unchanged overall, with slight decreases in coatings & adhesives and other chemicals, while agricultural stocks rose. Shipments were up 1.3% year-over-year, down from 1.5% in August, while inventories rose 0.6%. The inventories-to-shipments ratio remained at 1.24.
Oil prices rose as Ukraine intensified attacks on Russian oil infrastructure and OPEC maintained its production targets for the first quarter. U.S. natural gas futures surged to $5.00 per million British thermal units—the highest in nearly three years—due to colder weather across much of the country. The combined oil and gas rig count fell by nine to 537.
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Weekly Chemistry and Economic Trends (12
Consumer spending rose 0.3% in September, led by higher spending on gasoline, housing, health care, financial services & insurance, and food services. Disposable personal income also rose, up by 0.3%, driven by higher employee compensation and personal income receipts on assets such as stock dividends and real estate rents. The savings rate was 4.7%, the same as in August and the lowest since December 2024. Compared to a year ago, inflation-adjusted consumer spending was up 2.1% Y/Y while income was 1.9% Y/Y higher. n nThe headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.8% Y/Y in September, up from 2.7% Y/Y in August. Excluding food and energy, the core PCE price index also added 2.8% Y/Y, down from 2.9% in August. n nA proxy for the BLS nonfarm payrolls data, ADP reported that U.S. private sector employment shrank by 32,000 in November after gaining a revised 47,000 in October. Private payrolls have declined four out of the last six months. The year-to-date average monthly job gain in 2025 is 52,000, compared to 141,000 for the same period in 2024. Job losses were reported in manufacturing (down 18,000) and construction (down 9,000), as well as information, financial activities, and professional and business services. Employment rose in natural resources and mining (up 8,000); trade, transportation, and utilities; education and health services; and leisure and hospitality. Among size classes, the November pullback was entirely driven by small businesses, which lost 120,000 jobs, with mid-sized and large businesses adding 51,000 and 39,000 jobs, respectively. The ADP National Employment Report is an independent and high-frequency view of the private-sector labor market based on the aggregated and anonymized payroll data of more than 26 million U.S. employees. n nUS businesses announced over 71,000 layoffs in November, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, an executive staffing firm. The November cuts were 53% down from October but 24% higher than a year earlier. So far in 2025, for a total of eight months employers have cut staff at a higher rate than they did the year before. The firm noted that after the Great Recession, layoff plans have tended to soften towards the end of the year to avoid cuts happening during the holidays. The year-to-date total reached nearly 1.2 million, up 54% from the same period last year. The industries that cut the most in November include telecommunications, technology, food distribution, services (especially outsourcing), retail, non-profits, and media. n nThe ISM Manufacturing PMI® fell 0.5 points in November to 48.2, the ninth month of contraction. New orders, employment, and order backlogs contracted at a faster pace while production expanded. New export orders, imports, and inventories contracted at a slower pace. Customer inventories were again deemed to be “too low” and supplier deliveries were faster (suggesting more slack in the distribution network). Only four industries reported expansion in November, while 11 industries reported contraction, including chemicals. n nLooking abroad, growth in global manufacturing momentum slowed in November with the JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI® falling 0.4 points to 50.5. It was the lowest reading in four months. While output, new orders, and supplier deliveries were at levels consistent with improved operating conditions, employment and inventories signaled contraction. New export orders contracted for an eight straight month. n nLight vehicle sales increased in November, rising to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 15.6 million units. Compared to last year, sales fell 5.5% Y/Y, as sales of both cars and light trucks declined, down 18.4% Y/Y and 2.7% Y/Y, respectively. Sales are still reflecting the significant increases that took place earlier in the year as vehicle demand increased in anticipation of the expiration of the EV tax credits and tariff-related price changes. n nAfter rising 1.3% in August, factory orders inched up 0.2% in September, driven by orders for primary and fabricated metals, electrical equipment, computers and electronic products, and transportation equipment. Within the latter, a drop in nondefense aircraft orders was more than offset by a large increase in defense aircraft orders. Motor vehicle orders increased slightly. Orders for core business goods (nondefense capital goods, excluding aircraft) advanced 0.9%, following another 0.9% rise in August. Unfilled orders (a measure of the manufacturing pipeline) gained 0.7% on top of another 0.7% increase in August. Manufacturing shipments and manufacturing inventories were virtually flat in September, with the inventories-to-shipments ratio remaining at 1.56. n nThe ISM Services PMI® increased slightly to 52.6 in November (a level above 50 corresponds to an expansion while a level below 50 indicates a contraction in the services sector). The increase was led by order backlogs, imports, new export orders, employment (all contracting at a slower pace), and inventories (which switched from contracting to growing). Business activity/production grew at a slightly faster pace. Inventory sentiment remained “too high” while supplier deliveries slowed further. Prices continued to increase but at a slower pace. n nIndustrial production edged slightly higher (up by 0.1%) in September, following a downwardly revised 0.3% decline in August. The gain was led by higher utility output; mining and manufacturing production were flat. Within manufacturing, the largest percentage gains were in metals & metal products, electrical equipment, and aerospace. The largest declines were in wood products and motor vehicles & parts. Compared to a year ago, industrial production was up 1.6% Y/Y. Capacity utilization remained steady at 75.9%, which was slightly higher than last September’s 75.7% rate. n nHeadline import prices (which do not include tariffs) were unchanged in September, following a small gain in August. A decline in prices for imported fuels was offset by higher prices for non-fuel imports. Compared to a year ago, import prices were up 0.3% Y/Y. Export prices were also unchanged, but up 3.7% Y/Y. n nAccording to data released by the Association of American Railroads, chemical railcar loadings fell sharply to 29,583 for the week ending November 29th, which included the Thanksgiving holiday. Loadings were down 0.1% Y/Y (13-week MA), the first negative comparison in nearly two years. Chemical railcar loadings were up 1.3% YTD/YTD and have been on the rise for seven of the last 13 weeks. n nWithin the details of the ISM Manufacturing PMI® report, the chemical industry was reported to be in contraction. One chemical industry respondent noted, “Tariffs and economic uncertainty continue to weigh on demand for adhesives and sealants, which are primarily used in building construction.” There was contraction in new orders, production, employment, inventories, order backlogs, new export orders and imports. Customer inventories were deemed “too low”. The chemical industry was one of seven that reported higher supplier deliveries, an indicator of slackness in the distribution network. n nChemical production rose 0.6% in September, following two months of back-to-back declines. Output was higher for agricultural chemicals, consumer products, coatings, synthetic rubber, manufactured fibers. Thes gains were partially offset by declines in the production of plastic resins, organic chemicals, inorganic chemicals, and other specialty chemicals. Compared to a year ago, chemical production was up 1.4% Y/Y. Chemical capacity utilization tightened slightly to 80.2% in September, the highest since last December. n nChemical exports continued to decline in August (-1.0%). Drops in agricultural and consumer chemicals offset gains in basic and specialty chemicals. Imports fell even more (-7.0%), driven by consumer chemicals (-16.2%), basic chemicals (-3.6%), and specialty chemicals (-13.9%). Compared to a year ago, exports and imports decreased by 9.1% and 10.2%, respectively. Due to exports’ relative resilience, the trade surplus grew from $2.4 billion in July to $3.0 billion in August. n nChemical import prices (which do not include tariffs) eased for a second consecutive month in August, down another 0.3%. Chemical export prices were also lower by 0.4%. Compared to a year ago, chemical import prices were off 2.7% Y/Y while export prices were 1.5% Y/Y higher. n nChemical shipments were down 0.2% to $57.6 billion in September after being flat in August. Shipments of agricultural chemicals dropped 1.4%, while coatings & adhesives and all other chemicals were down by 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively. Chemical inventories were unchanged, with stocks of coatings & adhesives and all other chemicals dropping slightly while agricultural stocks increased. Compared to a year ago, chemical shipments were up 1.3% Y/Y, down from a 1.5% rise in August, while inventories were up 0.6% Y/Y. The inventories-to-shipments ratio for chemicals was 1.24, unchanged from August. n nEnergy Wrap-Up n n• Oil prices moved higher as Ukraine stepped up attacks on Russian oil infrastructure and OPEC left production targets unchanged for Q1. n n• U.S. natural gas futures jumped to $5.00/mmbtu (the highest in nearly three years) as sharply colder weather settled in across much of the U.S. this past week. n n• The combined oil & gas rig count fell by nine to 537. n nFor More Information n nACC members can access additional data, economic analyses, presentations, outlooks, and weekly economic updates through ACCexchange: https://accexchange.sharepoint.com/Economics/SitePages/Home.aspx n nIn addition to this weekly report, ACC offers numerous other economic data that cover worldwide production, trade, shipments, inventories, price indices, energy, employment, investment, R&D, EH&S, financial performance measures, macroeconomic data, plus much more. To order, visit http://store.americanchemistry.com/. n nEvery effort has been made in the preparation of this weekly report to provide the best available information and analysis. However, neither the American Chemistry Council, nor any of its employees, agents or other assigns makes any warranty, expressed or implied, or assumes any liability or responsibility for any use, or the results of such use, of any information or data disclosed in this material.