WASHINGTON (AP) — Normally, the first Friday of each month brings a moment of anticipation across financial and policy circles as the Labor Department releases its monthly jobs report at 8:30 a.m. eastern time. This month, however, silence replaced the usual data dump due to a government shutdown that halted the release of September’s employment figures.
The timing of the disruption is particularly problematic, as Federal Reserve officials and market analysts face heightened uncertainty about the economy’s direction. Hiring has nearly stalled, raising concerns about broader economic momentum. At the same time, consumer spending—especially among higher-income households—remains resilient, and some businesses are increasing investments in artificial intelligence data centers. Whether this spending will reignite job creation remains uncertain.
This marks the first delay of the jobs report since the 2013 shutdown. During the 2018–2019 partial closure, the Labor Department remained operational because Congress had allocated funding. September’s data will eventually be published once the shutdown ends.
The Trump administration has blamed Senate Democrats for the impasse, while Democrats point fingers at the White House. White House spokesperson Kush Desai claimed, “Businesses, families, policymakers, markets, and even the Federal Reserve are flying blind at a key juncture in America’s economic resurgence because the Democrats’ government shutdown has halted the release of key economic data.”
Yet President Donald Trump has previously dismissed official jobs data when it contradicted his economic narrative. In August, he dismissed the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics after reports revealed that job growth in May and June was significantly weaker than initially estimated.
In the absence of official statistics, economists are relying on alternative indicators from private firms and nonprofit organizations. These sources suggest a labor market with minimal hiring and few layoffs. Workers who are employed appear secure, while job seekers face increasing difficulty.
ADP’s payroll data, released Wednesday, indicated an unexpected loss of 32,000 private-sector jobs in September. Declines were seen in construction, manufacturing, financial services, restaurants, hotels, and professional services such as accounting and engineering. Only healthcare, private education, and information technology added positions.
“We’ve seen a significant decline in hiring momentum throughout the year,” said Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist. “This is consistent with a low hire — even a no-hire — and low fire economy.”
The shutdown has also prevented the release of weekly unemployment claims data, a key indicator of layoffs published every Thursday. However, Goldman Sachs compiled state-level data to estimate that initial claims rose slightly to 224,000 in the final week of September, up from 218,000 the prior week. These figures remain historically low, suggesting most employers are retaining staff.
On Friday, the Institute for Supply Management released its monthly services sector report, covering about 90% of the economy, including banking, retail, restaurants, and warehousing. The index fell to 50 from 52, with 50 marking the boundary between contraction and expansion—indicating no change in economic activity. However, the survey revealed that service-sector firms reduced hiring for the fourth consecutive month, reinforcing signs of weak job growth.
Additionally, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago introduced a new alternative measure, estimating that the national unemployment rate held steady at 4.3% in September.
The lack of official data increases uncertainty at a critical time. Policymakers, investors, and businesses are operating without a key economic barometer, complicating decisions about interest rates, investments, and hiring strategies.
— news from PBS
— News Original —
Without a new jobs report, U.S. ‘flying blind’ on hiring in an uncertain economy
WASHINGTON (AP) — From Wall Street trading floors to the Federal Reserve to economists sipping coffee in their home offices, the first Friday morning of the month typically brings a quiet hush around 8:30 a.m. eastern as everyone awaits the Labor Department’s crucial monthly jobs report. n nBut with the government shut down, no information was released Friday about hiring in September. n nREAD MORE: Vital economic data, including Friday’s jobs report, cut off in government shutdown n nThe interruption in the data has occurred at a particularly uncertain time, when policymakers at the Federal Reserve and Wall Street investors would need more data on the economy, rather than less. Hiring has ground nearly to a halt, threatening to drag down the broader economy. Yet at the same time, consumers — particularly higher-income earners — are still spending and some businesses are ramping up investments in data centers developing artificial intelligence models. Whether that is enough to revive hiring remains to be seen. n nIt’s the first time since a government shutdown in 2013 that the jobs report has been delayed. During the 2018-2019 partial government closure, the Labor Department was one of several agencies that remained open because Congress had agreed to fund them. September’s jobs figures will be released eventually, once the shutdown ends. n nThe Trump administration has blamed Senate Democrats for the shutdown, while Democrats levy similar charges against the White House. n nREAD MORE: Gold prices hit record highs amid U.S. government shutdown n n“Businesses, families, policymakers, markets, and even the Federal Reserve are flying blind at a key juncture in America’s economic resurgence because the Democrats’ government shutdown has halted the release of key economic data,” said White House spokesman Kush Desai. n nYet President Donald Trump himself has often trashed government jobs data when it has painted an unflattering picture of the economy. In August, he fired the then-head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics after the agency reported that job gains in May and June had been sharply lower than previously reported. n nFor now, economists are turning to alternative measures of the job market provided by nonprofits and private-sector companies. Those measures mostly show a job market with little hiring, but not many layoffs, either. Those who have jobs appear to be mostly secure, while those looking for work are having a tougher time. n nWATCH LIVE: White House holds briefing as Trump uses shutdown to withhold funding, unleash layoffs n nPayroll processor ADP, for example, said Wednesday that its estimate showed the economy had lost a surprising 32,000 private-sector jobs last month. Companies in the construction, manufacturing, and financial services industries all cut jobs, ADP found. Restaurants and hotels, and professional services such as accounting and engineering, also shed workers. n nBusinesses in health care, private education, and information technology were the only sectors to add workers, ADP said. n n“We’ve seen a significant decline in hiring momentum throughout the year,” said Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist. “This is consistent with a low hire — even a no-hire — and low fire economy.” n nThe shutdown has also meant the government isn’t releasing the weekly count of how many Americans have filed for unemployment benefits, a proxy for layoffs, which is published each Thursday. n nWATCH LIVE: Johnson and Thune hold news conference as shutdown threatens to extend over the weekend n nBut Goldman Sachs used data provided by most states to produce their own estimates of unemployment claims. In a report late Thursday, they calculated that weekly claims ticked up to 224,000, up from 218,000 the previous week. Those are historically low figures, which suggest companies are still holding onto most of their workers. n nOn Friday, the Institute for Supply Management, a trade group of purchasing managers, released its monthly report on economic activity in the services sector, which includes everything from banking to restaurants to retail stores to warehousing and covers about 90% of the economy. Its index dropped to 50, from 52, with 50 the dividing line between shrinking and expanding. That means services sector activity was unchanged last month. n nBut services companies did cut back on hiring for the fourth straight month, the ISM’s survey found, suggesting that job gains remained weak last month. n nAnd the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago on Thursday released its monthly forecast of unemployment, a new alternative measure it unveiled last month. The Chicago Fed estiamtes that the unemployment rate remained a still-low 4.3% in September. n nFind more of our coverage on the government shutdown n nWATCH: Millions of seniors lose access to telehealth services in wake of shutdown n nREAD MORE: Are Democrats or Republicans to blame for the looming government shutdown? Here’s what our poll found n nWATCH: GOP Sen. Rounds: ‘We’re not going to negotiate’ with Dems until shutdown ends n nREAD MORE: How your travel plans could be affected by a prolonged government shutdown n nINTERACTIVE: How the government shutdown affects different agencies n nA free press is a cornerstone of a healthy democracy. n nSupport trusted journalism and civil dialogue.