The White House has indicated that crucial federal reports on inflation and employment may not be published due to disruptions caused by the recent government shutdown. Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, stated that the lapse in operations could have lasting consequences for the nation’s statistical infrastructure.
She warned that the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) and jobs report might never be issued, undermining the reliability of future economic data and leaving Federal Reserve officials without vital information during a pivotal time for monetary policy decisions.
Economists had already anticipated delays in the release of October’s CPI figures, as data collection typically conducted by federal employees was halted after October 1, when the shutdown began.
Following Leavitt’s remarks, the administration clarified that the September employment report—compiled before the shutdown—would be made public once government operations resume. However, the October report, originally due last week, may remain unpublished.
The most recent official labor data available is the August jobs report, which came out on September 5. The Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Department of Labor did not respond immediately to inquiries regarding the press secretary’s statements.
Market analysts, economists, and policymakers now face uncertainty due to the data gap created by the shutdown. Views differ on how this absence of official statistics might influence the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decisions.
Some experts believe the central bank could rely on alternative sources, such as private-sector reports. For instance, ADP recently reported 42,000 jobs added in October, suggesting modest labor market resilience. However, this figure contrasts with earlier official reports that pointed to weakening job growth.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the challenge on October 29, calling the data shortage a temporary condition.
“If you’re driving in fog, you slow down,” he remarked, suggesting caution might guide the Fed’s approach at its December meeting.
— news from NBC News
— News Original —
White House says key economic reports may not be released
The White House said Wednesday it was unlikely that key federal inflation and labor reports impacted by the government shutdown would be released. n n“The Democrats may have permanently damaged the federal statistical system, with October CPI and jobs reports likely never being released, and all of that economic data released will be permanently impaired, leaving our policymakers at the Fed flying blind at a critical period,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said. n nEconomists had already expected that October’s CPI data on inflation might not be released because federal workers who would have collected the data if the government had been open were not deployed after Oct. 1. n nAfter Leavitt’s briefing, the White House clarified that September’s jobs report, for which data was collected before the government shut down, would be released once the stoppage ended. However, October’s jobs report, originally scheduled to be released last week, may not be. n nThe most recent jobs report issued before the shutdown began was the August jobs report, which was released on Sept. 5. n nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Department of Labor did not immediately respond to requests for comment on Leavitt’s comments. n nAlready, policymakers, market participants and economists expect a fog of data after the shutdown ends. n nOpinions on how the lack of data could impact the Federal Reserve’s next monetary policy moves are mixed. n nSome economists expect the Fed to make do with private data, such as the recently released private jobs report from ADP, which showed that employers added 42,000 jobs in October. n nHowever, that slightly more optimistic private-sector jobs report came after a series of official jobs reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed a shakier labor market. n nThe lack of government data “is a temporary state of affairs,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Oct. 29. n n“If you ask me, ‘Could it affect the December meeting?’ I’m not saying it’s going to, but … what do you do if you’re driving in the fog? You slow down,” he said.