As 2025 draws to a close, the global and Egyptian economies face a complex landscape shaped by shifting monetary policies and geopolitical tensions, with the U.S. dollar and gold serving as key indicators of market uncertainty. According to Dr. Mohamed El-Johari, economic expert and head of the Oxford Center for Economic Studies, the dollar has remained the world’s primary reserve currency but has experienced notable fluctuations due to changes in U.S. monetary policy. n nThe Federal Reserve’s move toward easing its tightening stance and initiating gradual interest rate cuts weakened the dollar’s momentum compared to previous years. This shift influenced the U.S. Dollar Index, which saw alternating waves of gains and losses driven by market expectations around American economic growth, fiscal deficits, and rising public debt levels. n nIn Egypt, 2025 marked a pivotal year for exchange rate dynamics. The Egyptian pound underwent significant volatility, with the dollar reaching high levels at times before stabilizing somewhat by year-end. This trajectory reflected a mix of factors: greater exchange rate flexibility, improved foreign currency inflows from tourism and investment, persistent inflationary pressures, and strong demand for dollars. The exchange rate thus became a clear reflection of Egypt’s transitional phase—balancing monetary reform with efforts to restore economic equilibrium. n nMeanwhile, gold reemerged as a preferred safe-haven asset. While the dollar softened, gold prices surged to record highs globally, driven by accumulating factors: increased central bank purchases—especially among emerging economies seeking to reduce dollar dependence—ongoing geopolitical instability, declining real yields on U.S. bonds amid rate cuts, and growing concerns over long-term inflation and global financial system fragility. n nDomestically, rising international gold prices directly impacted the Egyptian market, amplified by exchange rate movements. Local prices for various gold carats climbed, boosting demand not only for jewelry but also as a savings and hedging instrument among households and small investors. Looking ahead to 2026, El-Johari anticipates continued dollar volatility worldwide, with a slight downward bias if U.S. rate cuts persist. In Egypt, the dollar is expected to fluctuate within flexible ranges reflecting market conditions, foreign cash flows, and the economy’s ability to boost production and exports. Rather than sharp swings, 2026 may be defined by managing volatility. n nGold is likely to retain its appeal in 2026, though at a more moderate pace than in 2025. The base scenario suggests prices will remain elevated with limited upside. A bullish case could emerge if new crises arise or global rate cuts accelerate, while a corrective scenario—moderate price declines—might occur if global growth improves and market confidence strengthens. The year 2025 revealed that currencies and commodities are not just numbers—they reflect global confidence in the future. As 2026 unfolds, policymakers, investors, and citizens alike must navigate a period requiring greater caution, where balancing risk and protection remains central. n— news from اليوم السابع
— News Original —nخبير اقتصادى: الدولار العالمى سيستمر في التذبذب مع ميل نسبي للضعف بـ 2026nThe article discusses economic trends in 2025, focusing on the fluctuating U.S. dollar and rising gold prices. It cites economist Dr. Mohamed El-Johari explaining how Federal Reserve policies, inflation, and geopolitical tensions affected currency and commodity markets. In Egypt, exchange rate flexibility and increased gold demand were highlighted. Outlook for 2026 includes continued dollar volatility with slight weakness and sustained high gold prices under certain conditions.