Key Economic Risks Shaping Commodity Trading Through 2025–2026

The global economy is experiencing heightened instability due to geopolitical conflicts, external disruptions, and persistent inflationary pressures. Within this shifting landscape, the commodity trading industry—traditionally skilled at managing market fluctuations—is encountering a fresh wave of complex challenges. Successfully identifying and mitigating these emerging financial threats will be essential for traders aiming to remain resilient and competitive. n nA recent collaborative study by Willis, part of WTW, and Oxford Analytica brought together senior risk and external affairs executives from major trading firms across Latin America, North America, Western Europe, and Japan. Through in-depth interviews, the initiative produced an economic risk radar highlighting the most pressing concerns for the sector in 2025 and 2026. n nThe top five economic risks identified include: trade tariffs, economic instability in China, climate-related operational complications, escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, and maritime supply chain disruptions. These factors could significantly alter trade flows, pricing mechanisms, and capital allocation across energy, metals, and agricultural commodities. n nThe analysis explores each risk in detail, offering insight into how traders are adapting strategies. Experts from Oxford Analytica contributed comprehensive essays, while WTW specialists provided commentary on the role of trade credit insurance in Asian markets and examined Switzerland’s economic exposure to global commodity movements. n nFor a deeper understanding of how industry leaders are navigating this evolving risk environment, the full report is available for download. n— news from wtwco.com

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Managing the new economic risks in commodity trading
The global economy is entering a new era of volatility, driven by external shocks, geopolitical tensions and rising inflation. The commodity trading sector, which has historically been adept at navigating volatile markets, is now being confronted with a new era of uncertainty. Against this backdrop, understanding and managing new economic risks will be crucial for commodity traders to thrive. n nCommodity trading in uncertain times n nThe commodity trading sector is again operating in a world of sharper shocks and shifting rules. To understand how leading global commodity traders view this new economic risk landscape, Willis, a WTW business, and Oxford Analytica convened a panel of senior external-affairs and risk leaders, representing commodity trading executives across Latin America, North America, Western Europe and Japan. Oxford Analytica and Willis conducted in-depth interviews with these professionals, to produce an economic risk radar of the top risks commodity traders face for 2025-6. n nThe top five economic risks facing the commodity trading sector n nTariffs n nChina economic risk n nComplications arising from a changing climate n nUkraine escalation n nMaritime disruptions n nThese risks have the potential to reshape flows, pricing and working capital across energy, metals and agri-commodities. The report delves into each of these risks, providing analysis on their potential impact and how commodity traders are responding. n nScholars from Oxford Analytica’s network also provide their analysis through in-depth essays, and our Willis specialists share their insights through a series of callouts on the role of trade credit insurance in commodity trading in Asia, as well as the impact of commodity trading on Switzerland’s economy and its global trade presence. n nFor detailed perspectives on managing the new economic risks in commodity trading, download the full report.

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