Artificial intelligence has evolved from a supportive technology into a central engine of economic expansion, particularly in advanced economies. Spending on data centers and computing infrastructure now represents a significant share of national investment, with ripple effects across industries. In the United States, AI-related expenditures have become so pivotal that economists are assessing the potential fallout should this growth slow.
Evidence suggests that AI-driven business investment may have contributed up to half of the inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the first half of the current year. Peter Berezin, Chief Global Strategist at BCA Research, stated that without the AI boom, the U.S. economy might already be in recession. This underscores how reliant the current economic trajectory is on continued technological investment.
Data from Deutsche Bank indicates that non-AI private business investment has stagnated since 2019. Meanwhile, commercial construction outside data center projects is declining, job growth is moderating, and unemployment is gradually increasing. Stephen Juneau, an economist at Bank of America, remarked that AI is currently “the only source of investment right now,” highlighting its outsized role in sustaining economic momentum.
Barclays analysis projects that spending on software, equipment, and data infrastructure will add approximately one percentage point to GDP growth in the first half of 2025. Even after accounting for imported components such as Nvidia chips, AI-related spending still boosts output by 0.8% during that period. With total GDP growth estimated at 1.6%, this means AI accounts for roughly half of all economic expansion.
Looking forward, Bank of America forecasts that the four largest tech firms will invest an additional US$404 billion next year in AI infrastructure, although the pace of spending growth is expected to decelerate.
The construction sector is feeling the immediate impact of this surge. Data centers now make up about 35% of Turner Construction’s U.S. project backlog, up from around 13% five years ago. Building a single facility can require between 100 and 5,000 workers, creating labor demands that strain existing supply chains. Ben Kaplan of Turner Construction noted that lead times for critical components like electrical generators and switchgear have stretched by months, with every segment of the supply network under pressure.
Financial markets also reflect this concentration. Stock price-to-earnings ratios in the tech sector are near historic highs, making valuations vulnerable to downward corrections if earnings fail to meet expectations. The so-called “wealth effect” has already influenced consumer behavior—JPMorgan Chase estimates that rising AI stock values boosted consumer spending by US$180 billion over the past year. A sharp market decline could reverse this trend.
Jonathan Millar, Senior US Economist at Barclays, warns that a 20% to 30% stock market drop could reduce GDP growth by one to 1.5 percentage points over the following year. If AI investment merely plateaus, it could subtract another 0.5 percentage points from growth, further exposing the economy’s dependence on a single sector.
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How AI’s economic weight impacts Fintech’s future
Artificial intelligence has transitioned from a useful tool to a primary driver of economic growth.
Investment in data centres and computing infrastructure now constitutes a large portion of GDP in developed nations.
In the US, this economic reliance has grown so much that the potential consequences of a boom ending are a serious consideration for economists and financial leaders.
Volatility in AI stocks has highlighted how interconnected the US economy has become to AI-related investment and wealth.
The numbers show that business investment in AI may have accounted for as much as half of the inflation-adjusted growth in gross domestic product during the first six months of this year.
Peter Berezin, Chief Global Strategist at BCA Research, says: “It’s certainly plausible that the economy would already be in a recession” without the AI boom.
Without AI-related spending, the economic outlook is less robust. According to Deutsche Bank, private business investment, excluding AI, has shown little to no growth since 2019.
Commercial construction outside of data centres is also in decline, while job creation has moderated and unemployment is slowly rising. Stephen Juneau, an economist at Bank of America, notes of AI: “it’s the only source of investment right now”.
According to analysis from Barclays, investment in software, equipment and data centres contributes approximately one percentage point to GDP growth in the first half of 2025.
Even when accounting for imported components like Nvidia chips, AI spending still increases output by 0.8% in the first half of the year. Given that total GDP grows by 1.6%, AI is responsible for half of all growth.
Looking ahead, Bank of America expects the four largest tech companies to invest another US$404bn next year, although the growth rate of this spending is expected to slow.
Construction and supply chain pressures
This investment increase is being felt directly within the construction sector. Data centres now represent around 35% of Turner Construction’s backlog in the US, a considerable rise from approximately 13% five years ago.
Ben Kaplan of Turner Construction explains that building one of these facilities requires anywhere from 100 to 5,000 people, an increase in demand that is placing a strain on supply chains.
Lead times for essential equipment such as electrical generators and switchgear have also been extended by months. “Every element of the supply chain is being stressed right now,” says Ben.
Stock valuations and recession vulnerabilities
The high concentration of growth in AI investment introduces specific economic vulnerabilities. With stock price-to-earnings ratios near record highs, share prices could fall if profit forecasts are not met.
A key factor is the ‘wealth effect’. JPMorgan Chase calculates that rising prices of AI stocks alone have boosted consumer spending by US$180bn over the past year. A sharp drop in stock values could cause a corresponding fall in consumption.
Jonathan Millar, Senior US Economist at Barclays, estimates that a 20% to 30% decline in the stock market could reduce GDP growth by one to 1.5 percentage points over a year. If AI investment merely ceased to grow, it could remove another 0.5 points from growth.