Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) has consistently delivered beat-and-raise earnings, but questions remain as the AI chip giant prepares to report its fiscal fourth-quarter results on February 26. Investors are eager to know whether this trend will persist and if it will reignite the stock’s recent sluggish performance.
Stifel’s top analyst Ruben Roy, who ranks in the top 3% of Wall Street experts, highlights a shift in sentiment this time around. “In contrast to prior quarters, the estimate revision trajectory suggests lower expectations heading into F4Q,” Roy noted. Nvidia shares are currently trading at 26x 2026 EPS, below their three-year average of 33x.
Recent feedback from Roy’s checks has been mixed. While demand for Blackwell remains positive, uncertainties about the company’s ability to meet this demand have created a “wide range of outcomes.” Expectations point to a stronger ramp in the second half of the year, but it remains unclear whether this will lead to significant adoption of the B200/GB200 or a faster transition to the B300/GB300 cycle. “For now, given continued post DeepSeek market jitters, we are unlikely to see a strong positive catalyst to shares out of earnings,” Roy added.
Roy’s forecast for F4Q25 includes revenue of $37.5 billion, slightly below the consensus estimate of $38.1 billion. He projects adjusted EPS of $0.83 and an adjusted gross margin of 73.5%, close to consensus estimates of $0.85 and 73.4%, respectively. Despite these tempered expectations, Roy remains optimistic about Nvidia’s long-term prospects.
“We believe that the underlying trends in AI infrastructure spend continue to bode well for NVDA,” he stated. With Nvidia trading at 27x his FY2027 (CY2026) EPS estimate of $5.12—below its five-year average of 33x—Roy views the stock as “reasonably valued.”
Looking ahead, Nvidia’s upcoming GTC event (March 17–21) could serve as a potential catalyst. The company is expected to unveil updates on its technology roadmap, emerging AI use cases, and customer adoption trends.
Roy maintains a Buy rating on NVDA shares with a $180 price target, indicating a potential 38% upside. The analyst consensus aligns with this view, rating NVDA a Strong Buy. The average target price of $178.81 suggests a 37% increase over the next year.
— news from TipRanks