Paul Samuelson, a renowned economist and MIT affiliate, once humorously remarked that the stock market has predicted nine of the past five recessions. Thus, relying solely on Wall Street to forecast economic trends might be akin to reading chicken entrails.
Despite this, reports indicate a decline in consumer confidence, with experts warning that tariffs could soon trigger inflation, potentially signaling a recession on the horizon. However, Arkansas appears to be weathering the storm better than many other states.
The state’s unemployment rate remains stable at 3.7 percent, below the national average of 4.2 percent. This rate has remained largely unchanged over the past three months. Arkansas has also reached record highs in both labor force participation and employment levels, according to a statement from the state Department of Commerce.
“It reminds me of the tortoise in the race with the hare—slow and steady,” said Michael Pakko, chief economist and state economic forecaster at the Arkansas Economic Development Institute at the University of Arkansas at Little Rock.
Nonfarm payroll jobs increased by 3,400, reaching a total of 1,388,500—a historic high for the state. Such growth is uncommon across most other states.
The leisure and hospitality sector saw the most significant gain, adding 4,000 jobs between April and May. However, this increase was not enough to affect the overall unemployment rate.
“At least we’re still growing,” noted Mr. Pakko. “That’s not the case across the country as a whole.”
Pakko added that the unemployment figures were “as good as could be expected” given the current economic uncertainties, including the potential impact of tariffs as a July deadline approaches for trade agreements, which has caused some concern.
“If these uncertainties don’t materialize, they likely won’t impact the real economy. But if another round of reciprocal tariffs emerges, we could see renewed concerns in financial markets and a quicker impact on the real economy.”
Nonetheless, Pakko anticipates continued slow and steady growth in the state’s economy, with fluctuations along the way.
Could he be right? Possibly.
As another notable economist, Ezra Solomon from Stanford, once quipped: “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.”
— news from (The Arkansas Democrat-Gazette)
— News Original —
EDITORIAL Respectable showing
Paul Samuelson, an economist of some note–and an MIT man–once said the stock market has predicted nine of the past five recessions. So if you ‘re looking to money players to predict the economic future, and watching Wall Street daily, you ‘d probably do just as well by reading chicken guts.
And yet.
The papers say consumer confidence has taken a hit. Experts say tariffs will soon lead to inflation. And recession surely is in our near future. And yet . . . Arkansas is doing pretty well, considering. We ‘re outperforming the rest of the nation in several economic areas.
For one, the unemployment rate remains steady at 3.7 percent, compared to the national rate of 4.2 percent. The rate has been largely unchanged in this state for the past three months. And Arkansas has a record-high labor force and employment levels, according to a news release from the state Department of Commerce.
“It reminds me of the tortoise and the race with the hare–slow and steady,” said Michael Pakko, chief economist and state economic forecaster at the Arkansas Economic Development Institute at the University of Arkansas at Little Rock.
Nonfarm payroll jobs rose 3,400 to 1,388,500–a record high for number of jobs in the state. Most states haven ‘t seen this kind of increase.
The largest bump came in the leisure and hospitality sector from April to May, adding 4,000 jobs. However, the increase wasn ‘t enough to impact the state ‘s unemployment rate.
“At least we ‘re still growing,” said Mr. Pakko. “That ‘s not true across the country as a whole.”
Pakko added that the unemployment report was “as good as could be expected” despite “a lot of uncertainties” in the economy.
Those include the impact tariffs may have on the state as a July deadline approaches for trade deals to be done, and that has caused at least some apprehension.
“If they don ‘t turn out to be true, they probably won ‘t impact the real economy at all. If it turns out we get another round of reciprocal tariffs, then we ‘ll see a renewed round of concerns and uncertainty in financial markets and probably show in the real economy fairly quickly.”
Ultimately, however, Pakko expects “slow, steady growth with ups and downs” in the state ‘s economy.
Is he right? He could be.
But as another economist of note–Ezra Solomon, a Stanford man–once put it: The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.